Tuesday, November 9-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Commodity markets are on fire early Tuesday, led by
surging precious metals prices that saw gold
futures hit a fresh record high and silver futures
hit a fresh 30-year high. The U.S. dollar index is
under selling pressure again Tuesday morning.
Surging commodity market prices do hint that
inflationary pressures will be problematic down the
road.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in last week's high of 1,224.20
and then at 1,235.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of
1,214.80 and then at 1,200.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh 2.5-
year high overnight. The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,200.00 and then at
2,210.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 2,177.00 and then at
2,162.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 11,350 and then more stops just below
support at Monday's low of 11,325. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at last
week's high of 11,400 and then at 11,450. Shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131 even and then at 131 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130 16/32 and then 130 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
135 19/32--lifetime high
135 12/32--Previous Month's high
131 20/32--second pivot point resistance
131 10/32--18-day moving average
131 7/32--previous day's high
131 4/32--first pivot point resistance
130 26/32--4-day moving average
130 23/32--9-day moving average
130 22/32--pivot point
130 19/32--previous day's close
130 9/32--previous day's low
130 6/32--first pivot point support
129 26/32--100-day moving average
129 24/32--second pivot point support
129 18/32--previous month's low
112 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are bullish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
127.21.5 and then at 128.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 127.00.0
and then at 126.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5
DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes
128 1/32--lifetime high
127 25/32--second pivot point resistance
127 22/32--previous month's high
127 21/32--previous day's high
127 19/32--first pivot point resistance
127 14/32--pivot point
127 12/32--previous day's close
127 10/32--previous day's low
127 9/32--4-day moving average
127 8/32--first pivot point support
127 3/32--second pivot point support
126 19/32--18-day moving average
126 19/32--9-day moving average
125 1/32--previous month's low
124 7/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
77.00 and then at 77.25. Shorter-term support is
seen at Monday's low of 76.51 and then at 76.25.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today
and hit another fresh six-month high overnight. The
bulls still have some upside technical momentum. In
December crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at overnight high of $87.63 and
then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $87.00 and then at the
overnight low of $86.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading.
The key "outside markets" are in a bullish posture
for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is lower, while stock indexes and crude oil
prices are firmer. Corn and soybean bulls have
solid upside near-term technical momentum. I look
for still more upside price action in the grains,
including wheat, in the coming weeks. Focus is on
Tuesday morning's USDA crop production report. That
report is expected to be generally bullish for the
grains.
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