How Will Monday's Open Translate The Rest Of The Week In The Options Market?

Scoreboard:

It was a 'Green Friday' to end another green week for markets, but the day was even greener than score showed. The Dow gained 154 points, but +260 points run in from the day's low to high. Same for the S&P, Nasdaq and small caps. The Greek headlines through the market into a frenzy. Brace for another possible celebratory pop of this same deal; to make matters worse, the deal is a can kick for just four months.

The Monday open was a coin flip because of headlines, but the ranges should have been the same as the last three weeks.
The Trades:

• Even though the markets are at all-time highs, the limits have been well-defined and unfolding in slow-motion. This leaves the door open for best results in cautious sales of iron condors in the major indices and some range bound names like Google.
• Active traders could also take directional short-term trades in select tickers like Apple and Tesla that have shown good appetite. These can be either debit spread for momentum, credit spreads for range trades or combinations of both.
• Longer-dated trades can be done in names that have reported.

For the past two weeks, big money has been lost on loser call positions starting at 1240. They will try again for this week. Small debit call spread at 1230 or 1235 may pay well if markets continue their run.

Variables:

• Point of caution from this week's volumes having been relatively weak. In fact, for the last three weeks, the markets' price rises is on waning volumes. This could be a sign of weakening conviction in the bull thesis.
• Rates showed great resilience last week, especially Friday, but they might be at a resistance level (see below chart). If so, then this could be a hiccup for bulls this week.

• Oil: Bottomless or bottomed?
• Greece: Final headline pop coming Monday?
• Ukraine/Russia: No truce deal in effect. Russia downgrade could mean economic issues for European macros.
• China: Potential disaster area that is not in the headlines.
• Fed Speak: Janet Yellen's words should move the markets, but a direction is unknown. She usually is accommodative and won't likely start sounding bearish now.
• EQE: QE in Europe to start soon. This could attract money from the U.S. markets. Bulls can take calls in case the EQE causes a sharp rise. March 40 calls look good to me.
• TLT: Possible bounce area here and this too could be an issue for bulls.

Check out the video below for a full recap of this week's outlook: