ECB Loans Nearly EUR 0.5 Trillion in First Ever 3-Year Loan Program

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The European Central Bank outperformed expectations today as it announced allotment results in its first ever 3-year funding round, targeted at shoring up bank liquidity so that their response to the current crisis would not be a lending freeze. The central bank announced it was lending 489.2 billion Euros ($644 billion) to 523 banking institutions. The size of the loans is significantly higher than
the median of forecasts
by analysts polled by Reuters and Bloomberg, which ranged from 150 to 600 billion Euros. ECB's hope is that banks will use at least part of the funds by buying sovereign debt from countries like Italy and France, while continuing lending to business, thus providing a vital jumpstart to an ailing economy riddled by fear. The 3-year loan maturity followed the commitment made by ECB president Mario Draghi earlier in the week, to help smaller banks who provided liquidity to small business. A first in its history, the 3-year term is seen as very favorable to such banks because it removes a key uncertainty of funding in their funding operations. Normally, banks borrow in the short term and loan in the long term, benefiting from the spread between respective interest rates. This means that they have to continually refresh their funding sources as shorter maturities approach redemption. It is something that has not been easy to do in the current climate.
NY Times
says (via Dealogic) that just in the first three months of 2012, banks must refresh over $200 billion euros in such short term loans. For all of 2012, that figure is
700 billion
. The allotments announced today mean that banks can avail long term funding at rates that closely resembles much shorter terms. These loans are priced at the average rate of the ECB's main rate over the next three years, says
Reuters
. Having been cut earlier in the month, this rate sits at a record-low 1.0 percent. Many of the 523 banks being funded through this 3-year program will see their borrowing rates discounted by as much as 3 percentage points, Reuters says. It is still unclear how surgically the intended purpose of the ECB to flow this liquidity to ailed Sovereign borrowers will be fulfilled. Further more, although the allotment is having a positive effect on European
sovereign bonds
(the bond market already priced in a large-takeup on the 3-year program ahead of its result announcement). This program does not ease concerns that European banks are increasingly becoming dependent on the ECB as a lender of last resort. As high as this offering was, it is yet unclear whether it is to be repeated in the near term. That leaves a much larger liquidity hole with no solution in sight. This optimism and successive realism is showing in the Euro currency versus the US dollar. EUR/USD spiked briefly to 1.3196 before settling at 1.3065 at the time of this writing.

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that the ECB program is a strong step towards a crisis solution might want to consider the following trades:
  • Long EUR/USD: Euro spiked briefly on the dollar, but it is currently normalized. As funding starts taking place, and trickling results show banks are enticed to take on more sovereign debt, the Euro may gain ground
  • Long SPDR Gold Trust GLD: gold is bound to trace the dollar weakening as Euro picks up, so it is a companion trade to EUR/USD that provides more cover to Euro-specific factors
  • Long iShares MCI Germany ETF EWG: with Germany being a central player in the European crisis, any pick-up in confidence will be reflected in its sovereign bond
Bearish:
Traders who believe that the measure is still too small to eradicate European credit crunch may consider alternative positions:
  • Long USD/EUR: Dollar is still the de-facto world currency, and provides a nice counterweight to the Euro, as it is backed by an economy that, though troubled, is still in a far better position than the European Union currently
  • Short EWG: the Germans have their reputation riding on the EU and the health of its economy. Any drawback in confidence is bound to weigh on its treasuries
  • Short GLD
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
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