Market Overview

Did Mayans Predict Radical Event in Global Economy?

The year 2012 is less than two weeks away and some of the investors are starting to prepare themselves for almost certain end of the world. Portfolios have been liquidated for the last and largest New Year's parties ever. After all, it would be foolish to leave money in the bank account when the world is about to come to its end.

But wait – what if the Mayans did not predict the end of the world after all. Before you liquidate your house and rest of the assets, consider the possibility that instead of predicting the end of the world as we know it, the Mayan prediction was a simple research note on the global economy.

What the Mayans may have meant is that in 2012, the global economy will turn upside down and the long-lasting dominance of the western countries in the global finance will end. Europe will fall into a recession and the Euro Zone will break up, as several countries end up defaulting on their sovereign debt. In the United States, Washington's inability to compromise on extending payroll tax cuts or investing in infrastructure and education end up leaving the country behind its emerging competitors.

As the two powerhouses, Europe and U.S. fall, the BRIC countries and other developing nations and have room to grow their influence. Certainly, the fall of two big trade partners will have a negative impact on these countries' exports, but they will soon establish strong trade relationships with each other and the growing middle class in the emerging nations will replace the important role of the U.S. and European consumers.

Still doubting all this? The Mayan prophecy is based on the theory of Geomagnetic reversal, which could clearly refer to change in the economic polarization from west to east. If this happens, the investors may want to adjust their portfolios to increase their exposure to the BRIC countries.


ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that the Mayan predictions for 2012 are just a fairytale might want to consider the following trades:
  • Go long SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY)
  • Go long SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT)
Bearish:
Traders who believe that the Mayans are right in predicting a major change in the global economy may consider alternative positions:
  • Short PowerShares US Dollar Index ETF (NYSE: UUP)
  • Short CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (NYSE: FXE)
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.

Posted-In: Long Ideas Short Ideas Economics Trading Ideas General

 

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