Canadian Banks Pull Back from 52-Week Highs (BMO, BNS, CM, RY, TD)

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Canada's big five banks—Bank of Montreal
BMO
, Bank of Nova Scotia
BNS
, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
CM
, Royal Bank of Canada
RY
and Toronto-Dominion Bank
TD
—have all pulled back somewhat from recent 52-week highs. This could be seen as a buying opportunity ahead of earnings reports later this month. Canadian Banks came through the financial crisis and recession better than their counterparts in the United States. Results for Canada's big five were better than expected back in the first quarter; earnings for the group jumped 18% year-over-year, as well as 23% from the previous period. Toronto-Dominion and Bank of Nova Scotia (or Scotiabank) raised their dividends, while Royal Bank (RBC) and Canadian Imperial may do so later this year. Bank of Montreal (BMO) is expected to do so in 2012 in the wake of its acquisition of U.S. bank Marshall & Ilsley
MI
. Here's a peek at what analysts anticipate from the coming quarterly reports.
Bank of Montreal
The share price is down about 5% from the recent 52-week high of $66.64. Analysts expect to see earnings about the same as a year ago, $1.28 per share, when this bank reports on May 25. BMO expanded its presence in Hong Kong and acquired George Lloyd Management during the quarter. But earnings were better than expected in three of the past four quarters; the beat was 10.3% in the previous period. Shares are trading at 12.6 times earnings estimates, and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 10%. So far, analysts anticipate 9.9% earnings growth for the full year.
Bank of Nova Scotia
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Scotiabank has only slipped about 3% since the beginning of the month, but shares have traded mostly between $58 and $62 since early February. Per-share earnings are expected to be up only 4 cents from a year ago to $1.08. But Scotiabank has topped consensus estimates in recent quarters by as much as 8.3%. During the three months that ended in April, this bank offered Visa payWave on its credit cards, and it was reported to be mulling acquisitions in Latin America and Asia. Shares are trading at 14.5 times earnings estimates, but that is lower than the industry average. The price/earnings-to-growth ratio is 1.1 and the long-term EPS growth forecast is 12%. So far, analysts are looking for 9.8% earnings growth for the full year.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
The share price is about four bucks lower than the recent 52-week high of $88.76. The consensus forecast calls for earnings of $1.80 per share (a year-over-year increase of 18.9%) and revenue of $3.2 billion. Looking ahead to the full year, analysts expect to see earnings up 14% to $7.50 per share and revenue up 5.8% to $12.8 billion. Canadian Imperial topped earnings estimates in the past three quarters, by 15.4% in the previous quarter. Shares are trading at 12.6 times earnings estimates and the price/earnings-to-growth ratio is 1.1. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 12% and the return on investment is 19.3%. The dividend yield is 4.1%.
Royal Bank of Canada
This stock has pulled back more than 4% since the beginning of the month. Analysts are looking for second-quarter earnings to have grown 19.8% from a year ago to $1.16 per share. Earnings are also expected to rise sequentially and year-over-year in the current quarter. After a string of earnings misses, RBC managed to beat consensus expectations by 21.4% in the first quarter. Its forward P/E ratio of 12.2 is lower than the trailing P/E ratio of 15.9, suggesting anticipated growth. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10%. Also, the dividend yield is 3.3% and the return on equity is 15%. Note that Royal Bank is reported to seeking buyers for its U.S. operations.
Toronto-Dominion Bank
Shares are trading more than 5% lower than the 52-week high of $89.79. This bank is expected to report May 26 that its per-share earnings increased 13.9% from a year ago to $1.58. The revenue forecast calls for $5.2 billion. Toronto-Dominion opened so-called green stores in the three months that ended in April, and also selected the management team for its operations in Florida. Looking ahead to the full year, analysts thus far expect earnings to grow 13.2% and revenue up 5.7% from a year ago. Toronto-Dominion has had a mixed record when it comes to beating estimates, but its first quarter earnings topped the consensus forecast by 13.7%. The bank has a long-term EPS growth forecast of 12%, a dividend yield of 2.9% and a consensus Buy rating. Shares of all five of these banks opened lower this morning. The iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund
EWC
is an exchange traded fund with significant investment in the Canadian financial sector. But like the individual stocks mentioned above, it has pulled back: about 6% since the beginning of the month.
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Posted In: Long IdeasShort IdeasPreviewsTrading IdeasETFsBank of MontrealBank of Nova ScotiaCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceGeorge Lloyd ManagementiShares MSCI Canada Index FundMarshall & IlsleyRoyal Bank of CanadaScotiabankToronto-Dominion BankVisa payWave
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