Investors Remain Cautious Ahead of "Brexit" Vote, Uncertainty Surrounding Federal Reserve Moves
TOKYO, PLANTATION, Fla. and HONG KONG, June 21, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TradeStation, a Monex Group company (Monex Group, Inc. is listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, code: 8698) and award-winning broker-dealer and futures commission merchant, today announced the results of the "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey, Vol. 21." The survey found that U.S. investors who use the TradeStation analysis and trading platform remain cautious ahead of Britain's vote on whether to remain in the European Union. The survey also found uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future course on interest rates.
Results of the recently conducted online survey show that entering the third quarter of 2016, U.S. investors' perception of global equities markets have barely changed from three months earlier. Twenty-six percent of U.S. survey respondents said they expect global stocks to gain ground in the next three months, compared to 25% in March 2016. The percentage of respondents expecting global equities markets to decline over the next three months fell to 27% from 43% in March, while the percentage of those expecting global equities to remain flat rose to 47% from 32% in March.
This quarter's survey queried U.S investors about Britain's impending vote on whether to exit the European Union – the so-called "Brexit" – and how the result might affect their own investment outlook and view of the global economy going forward. A majority of those surveyed (57%) said they expect UK voters to reject the proposed exit, as opposed to only 28% who predicted the breakaway faction to prevail in the vote.
While U.S. investors tended to expect Britain to remain in the EU, the survey results suggest that either Brexit outcome would have only limited influence on their trading and outlook. For example, among both those predicting an exit and those expecting the opposite result, pluralities of investors (38% and 47%, respectively) said the outcome would not affect their own investment outlook. Likewise, similarly large percentages, 48% of those expecting the "breakaway" faction to prevail and 54% of those expecting the "stay" faction to prevail, said the eventual result would do little to change the global economic outlook.
When questioned about the Federal Reserve and interest rates, investors expressed greater confidence than in previous surveys that the central bank would hike interest rates sooner rather than later. Nearly one-third (32%) expected the Fed to raise rates at its June 2016 meeting, 41% expected a rate hike in the third quarter of 2016 and 14% predicted a rate increase in the fourth quarter of this year. Barely more than one in eight investors (13%) expected the Fed to postpone action on interest rates until 2017 or later.
"The survey results suggest that investors are biding their time in the face of uncertainty concerning the Brexit vote, the Federal Reserve and the upcoming U.S. presidential election," said John Bartleman, President of TradeStation Group, Inc. "TradeStation is committed to developing and refining the kinds of tools – like our web and mobile trading apps – that enable our clients to react quickly to breaking news and events that may impact the global financial markets."
In other survey results:
- Investors' expectations for their own trading activity over the next 12 months were slightly diminished compared to last quarter. Forty percent of respondents said they expect to increase their trading volume, down from 51% and 53%, respectively, in the March 2016 and December 2015 quarterly surveys. As in the March survey, just 11% of respondents expect their trading volume to decline over the coming year.
- Expectations for U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar were likewise little changed from the previous quarter, with 69% of those surveyed saying they expect U.S. stocks to outperform stocks in Europe/U.K., Asia (excluding Japan) and Japan in the second quarter of 2016, compared to 70% in March 2016. Sixty-five percent also expect the U.S. dollar to strengthen the most of any currency over the next three months, up from 61% in March.
Monex has been conducting its monthly retail investor survey with its Japanese clients since October 2009. The "Monex Global Retail Investor Survey," covering retail clients in Japan, Hong Kong and the U.S., was launched in June 2011 and is conducted on a quarterly basis. Please refer to the full report for complete results.
The Monex Global Retail Investor Survey measures customer sentiment based upon answers to specific questions received from a random sampling of customers of Monex, Inc., TradeStation Securities, Inc., and Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Ltd. Details of the methodology used to conduct the survey are available upon request. Accuracy and completeness of the data derived from the survey is not guaranteed.
The information contained herein should not be construed as investment research or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, securities derivatives or futures products or services. Investor sentiment derived from the survey responses is no guarantee of future performance or success.
Active trading regardless of asset class (equities, options, futures) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Relevant risk disclosures are available at www.tradestation.com.
About Monex Group, Inc.
Monex Group Inc. (TSE: 8698), including its main subsidiary Monex Inc, a major online securities brokerage which provides advanced and unique financial services to individual investors as a pioneer among Japanese online securities brokers. Its services cover asset management focusing on alternative investments, investment education and other investment banking functions along with an online distribution network to more than 1.6 million individual investors in Japan.
Monex Group, Inc. is a global online financial institution with operations in three major financial centers. Monex, Inc. in Japan, TradeStation Group, Inc. in the United States which Monex acquired through tender offer in June 2011, and Monex Boom Securities Limited in Hong Kong which Monex acquired in December 2010. The group has about 1000 employees worldwide with over half of its staff located in the United States.
About TradeStation Group, Inc.
TradeStation Group, Inc., through its principal operating subsidiary, TradeStation Securities, Inc., offers the TradeStation analysis and trading platform to the active trader and certain institutional trader markets. The TradeStation platform offers electronic order execution and enables clients to design, test, optimize, monitor and automate their own custom equities, options and futures trading strategies. TradeStation Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc., one of the largest online financial services providers in Japan.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. (Member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, NSCC, DTC, OCC & CME) is a licensed securities broker-dealer and a registered futures commission merchant (FCM), and also a member of BATS's BZX, BYX, EDGX and EDGA Exchanges, BOX Options Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Chicago Stock Exchange, International Securities Exchange, NASDAQ OMX BX, NASDAQ OMX PHLX, NASDAQ Stock Market, NYSE Arca and NYSE Mkt. Its TradeStation Prime Services division, based in New York, seeks to provide prime brokerage services, including securities lending, to small and mid-sized hedge funds and other firms. The London-based subsidiary, TradeStation Europe Limited (FCA regulated), introduces UK and other European accounts to TradeStation Securities, Inc. The company's technology subsidiary, TradeStation Technologies, Inc., develops and offers strategy trading software tools and subscription services, and hosts the TradingApp® Store.
About Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited
Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited ("BOOM") offers multi-market and multi-currency online securities trading services to investors all around the world. With BOOM's proprietary web-based trading platform, investors can trade equities in all major exchanges and manage different major currencies via one single account. Currently, it offers access to securities listed on over 17 stock markets in 12 countries. In addition, BOOM also develops trading solutions for other financial institutions.
Being the first company to launch Internet stock trading in Asia/Pacific, BOOM introduced a new pattern of self-directed cross-border investment by applying new technology to traditional equities trading and financial services. BOOM aims to provide retail investors with PRIVATE, EASE, SPEEDINESS and INEXPENSIVE international stock trading services.
BOOM is a fully licensed Broker / Dealer regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong, founded in 1997 and headquartered in Hong Kong. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of Monex Group, one of the largest online financial services providers in Japan.