Market Overview

TrueCar Projects July Retail Auto Sales to Expand 4.2% amid Resilient Consumer Demand

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SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, projects retail auto sales to individual consumers will rise 4.2 percent in July over a year ago on robust demand, summer sales-event momentum and the growing popularity of premium brand vehicles.

Total industry volume, including fleet deliveries, may increase by 2.6 percent with sales of 1,473,300 units, making this July the highest in nine years. With the same number of selling days in July 2015 compared to the same period last year, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales should reach 17.2 million units this month versus last year's 16.5 million-unit SAAR.

"With strong retail demand from consumers, July is a solid start to the second half of 2015 and the industry is on target to hit TrueCar's annual 17.1 million-unit projection," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's vice president of industry insights. "This summer, consumers continue to be confident in the U.S. economy, a trend made particularly evident by their penchant for premium brands. That segment's growth has outpaced mass-market brands this year, and this month, most notably, Acura and Lincoln should see double-digit growth."

Premium vehicle sales may increase 4.6 percent compared to July 2014, while mass-market volume will rise by only 2.4 percent. Lincoln brand sales could be up as much as 20.8 percent this month, while Acura may post a 15.4 percent increase. July should be the eleventh consecutive month of year-over-year gains for the Lincoln Navigator. Acura TLX sales should be very strong this month, nearly double the average monthly volume of the TL sedan that TLX replaced.

Subaru, Nissan and General Motors should lead industrywide light vehicle retail sales gains among major automakers. Subaru, with an 11.5 percent rise in retail volume, should be the leader. Nissan follows, with a 6.9 percent increase amid gains for the brand's crossovers. While total sales for GM may be down 1.9 percent due to lower fleet volumes, retail sales should rise 5.9 percent. GM fleet penetration should hit 17 percent of total sales, the lowest level since December 2011.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,849 per vehicle in July, down 1.2 percent from a year ago and down 0.8 percent from June 2015.

Key indicators also point to a strong economic landscape. The consumer price index was up 0.3 percent in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 6.8 point in June, hitting 101.4. Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed during the week ending July 18 was the lowest in 42 years, following June's unemployment report that came in at 5.3 percent, the lowest for the month in eight years.

Other key findings for July sales:

  • Expected registration mix of 88.4 percent retail sales and 11.6 percent fleet versus 87.1 percent retail and 12.9 percent fleet last July.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 3,243,681, up 3.0 percent from July 2014.

Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

July 2015 Forecast

 

% Change vs. July 2014

 

% Change vs. July 2014

(Daily Selling Rate)

FCA 174,000   3.1%   3.1%
Ford 219,000   3.6%   3.6%
GM 251,300   -1.9%   -1.9%
Honda 142,200   4.6%   4.6%
Hyundai 68,400   2.1%   2.1%
Kia 54,100   3.4%   3.4%
Nissan 129,000   6.2%   6.2%
Subaru 51,300   12.2%   12.2%
Toyota 216,000   0.1%   0.1%
Volkswagen Group 51,200   3.0%   3.0%

Industry

1,473,300

 

2.6%

 

2.6%

   

Total Market Share

Manufacturer July 2015 Forecast   July 2014   June 2015
FCA 11.8%   11.8%   12.6%
Ford 14.9%   14.7%   15.2%
GM 17.1%   17.8%   17.6%
Honda 9.7%   9.5%   9.1%
Hyundai 4.6%   4.7%   4.6%
Kia 3.7%   3.6%   3.7%
Nissan 8.8%   8.5%   8.4%
Subaru 3.5%   3.2%   3.0%
Toyota 14.7%   15.0%   14.2%
Volkswagen Group 3.5%   3.5%   3.6%
   

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

July 2015 Forecast

 

% Change vs. July 2014

 

% Change vs. July 2014

(Daily Selling Rate)

FCA 154,900   3.0%   3.0%
Ford 170,000   5.4%   5.4%
GM 208,700   5.9%   5.9%
Honda 140,600   4.7%   4.7%
Hyundai 54,100   -1.4%   -1.4%
Kia 48,600   1.9%   1.9%
Nissan 110,200   6.9%   6.9%
Subaru 50,100   11.5%   11.5%
Toyota 206,000   1.9%   1.9%
Volkswagen Group 48,400   1.7%   1.7%

Industry

1,302,599

 

4.2%

 

4.2%

   

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Incentive per
Unit July 2015
Forecast

 

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs. July
2014

 

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
June 2015

 

Total Spending
July 2015
Forecast

FCA $3,413   -1.1%   0.6%   $590,136,280
Ford $2,678   -23.5%   3.2%   $586,584,143
GM $3,983   8.2%   1.9%   $1,000,886,146
Honda $1,935   5.5%   1.0%   $275,175,748
Hyundai $2,546   46.0%   2.5%   $174,159,412
Kia $2,490   9.4%   -7.3%   $134,709,000
Nissan $3,168   9.6%   -6.8%   $408,664,701
Subaru $770   19.4%   0.4%   $39,523,476
Toyota $2,034   -6.1%   1.4%   $439,237,404
Volkswagen Group $3,138   -2.6%   1.3%   $159,737,344

Industry

$2,849

 

-1.2%

 

-0.8%

 

$4,187,336,989

     

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and should not be read as a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, gives consumers transparent insight into what others paid and access to guaranteed savings off MSRP from TrueCar Certified Dealers. TrueCar's network of more than 10,000 trusted Certified Dealers is committed to providing upfront pricing information and a hassle-free buying experience. TrueCar powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including AARP, American Express, AAA and USAA. Not all program features are available in all states. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar, Inc.
Carly Schaffner, 424-258-8897
CSchaffner@truecar.com
or
TrueCar media line:
+1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free)
Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com





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