2012-2013 Housing Market Outlook (Province of Quebec)
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - Nov. 5, 2012) - According to the latest forecasts conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), a decrease in housing starts and a stable resale market are expected. "Slower economic growth will be partly offset by still-favourable borrowing conditions and demographic trends. This environment will lead to continued moderation in housing starts in the last quarter of 2012 and in 2013," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC Regional economist for the province of Quebec.
In 2012, slower job growth, the recent easing of the resale market and the continuing trend toward a greater share of multiple dwelling starts continued to bring down single starts. As a result, single starts are expected to decline 4 per cent to 15,900 units. A similar decline of 5.7 per cent is expected in 2013, to 15,000 units.
Following sustained construction in the first half of 2012, starts of multi-family dwellings are expected to settle back down to a rate more in line with demand over the forecast period. As a result, multiple starts are expected to decline 3.2 per cent to 30,800 units in 2012, followed by a decline of 11.4 per cent to 27,300 units in 2013.
MLS(R) sales are expected to record a gain of 2 per cent to 78,700 sales in 2012 and a similar gain of 1.4 per cent to 79,800 sales in 2013. "Relatively stable sales of existing homes, combined with rising new listings, has taken some pressure off price growth in recent quarters and should continue to do so over the forecast horizon," added Kevin Hughes. With a return to more balanced conditions, price growth in the resale market will continue to moderate in 2012 and 2013. Following a gain of 8.4 per cent in 2011, the average MLS(R) price is forecast to rise 3.9 per cent in 2012 to $271,800 and rise 0.8 per cent in 2013 to $274,100.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.
CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at http://www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.
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