Market Overview

Fitch Rates Advocate Health Care's (IL) Series 2012 Bonds 'AA'; Outlook Stable

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CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'AA' rating to the following Illinois Finance Authority revenue bonds issued on behalf of Advocate Health Care (Advocate):

--$150 million revenue bonds, series 2012.

In addition, Fitch affirms the 'AA' rating on approximately $1.06 billion of revenue bonds issued by the Illinois Health Facilities Authority and the Illinois Finance Authority on behalf of Advocate. Fitch also affirms the 'F1+' short-term ratings on the following Illinois Finance Authority bonds based upon self-liquidity provided by Advocate:

--$51.9 million put bonds, series 2003A&C;

--$137.2 million put bonds, series 2008A-1,2&3;

--$21.9 million put bonds, series 2008C-3B;

--$70 million variable rate demand bonds, series 2011B.

The series 2012 bonds are expected to be fixed rate and will price the week of Nov. 12, 2012 via negotiated sale. Bond proceeds will be used for various capital projects, reimbursement for prior capital expenditures, and to pay costs of issuance.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The bonds are unsecured obligations of the obligated group. They are not secured by a pledge of, mortgage on, or security interest in any obligated group assets.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

LIGHT DEBT BURDEN: The additional debt will not impact Advocate's relatively low burden. The system's strong profitability combined with light debt burden generates robust coverage of pro forma maximum annual debt service (MADS) by EBITDA of 9.9x through the nine month interim period ended Sept. 30, 2012, which well exceeds Fitch's 'AA' category median of 4.8x. Pro forma debt to capitalization remains a manageable 25.5% while pro-forma MADS equates to a low 1.6% of fiscal 2011 (Dec. 31 year end) revenues.

CONSISTENT PROFITABILITY SUPPORTS LIQUIDITY: Advocate's strong operating cash flow generation has resulted in substantial balance sheet strength, with liquidity indicators that exceed Fitch's 'AA' category median ratios. Further, Advocate consistently maintains ample liquidity to meet Fitch's criteria for the 'F1+' short term rating against its mandatory put exposure.

LEADING MARKET SHARE POSITION: Advocate maintains a leading market share in the Chicago metropolitan area that is more than double its nearest competitor and remains the largest provider in the state. Still, Fitch notes the service area remains highly competitive, and the regulatory environment remains challenging.

STRONG CLINICAL INTEGRATION: Advocate's high level of integration with its clinicians has enabled better care coordination, operating efficiencies, effective contracting, physician engagement, and should position it well to navigate continued pressures on reimbursement and focus on clinical quality metrics.

CREDIT PROFILE

The 'AA' rating is supported by Advocate's light pro forma debt level, consistent cash flow and strong coverage levels, strong market position, and well integrated care delivery model.

Following the series 2012 issuance, Advocate's debt will total nearly $1.3 billion of which $608.3 million is fixed, $321.3 million are variable rate demand bonds supported by SBPAs, $281 million are put bonds supported by self-liquidity (of which $119.9 million is subject to tender within 13 months), and $100 million are non-rated variable rate direct bank placements. Pro forma MADS is estimated at $72.6 million per the underwriter. While Advocate faces sizable put, renewal, and interest rate exposure, its SBPAs were recently renewed through 2015-2017, and its balance sheet strength further mitigates these risks.

Robust operating profitability has resulted in operating EBITDA of over $500 million (12.1% and 11.1% operating EBITDA margins in 2010 and 2011, respectively) and net EBITDA over $600 million (EBITDA margins of 15% and 13.2% in 2010 and 2011, respectively). Strong performance continued through September 2012, with a 10.3% operating EBITDA and 14.2% EBITDA margins. The series 2012 bonds will be used to finance some of Advocate's capital plans, which are notably sizeable through 2015 and will require continued strength in cash flow and perhaps additional debt issuance. Further, Advocate's defined benefit pension is well funded.

At Sept. 30, 2012, Advocate's unrestricted cash and investments totaled nearly $3.4 billion compared $3.1 billion at fiscal 2011. Liquidity metrics at Sept. 30, 2012 were robust with 295.4 DCOH, pro forma cushion ratio of 46.2x and cash and investments equating to 246.7% of pro forma long-term debt; all of which exceed Fitch's respective 'AA' category medians of 241.1, 24.1x and 169.4%.

Advocate's well integrated clinical platform coupled with its position as market leader and largest system in the state provide some buffer against competitive and regulatory challenges. Through June 30, 2012 Advocate's share was 15.8% against its closest competitor the newly-aligned Presence Health system with 10.4% market share. However, the presence of several well regarded academic medical centers and community hospitals and the recent merger activity by large multi-state systems present some credit risk. Fitch expects that Advocate's high level of physician integration and continued growth of the system should sustain its strong market position. The most recent expected addition to the system is Sherman Health, which announced it is pursuing a partnership with Advocate with a letter of intent signed in October 2012. The closing is expected in mid-2013.

The 'F1+' rating reflects Advocate's availability of highly liquid resources to cover the mandatory tender on its put bonds. At Sept. 30, 2012, Advocate's eligible cash and investment position available for same-day settlement would cover the cost of the maximum mandatory put on any given date well in excess of Fitch's criteria of 1.25x. Advocate provided Fitch with an internal procedures letter outlining the procedures to meet any un-remarketed puts. In addition, Advocate provides monthly liquidity reports to Fitch to monitor the sufficiency of Advocate's cash and investment position relative to its mandatory put exposure.

The Stable Outlook is supported by Fitch's expectation that Advocate will remain the market leader, allowing for consistent cash flow in support of its capital and debt service needs, while maintaining solid liquidity against the risks associated with its capital structure. Fitch believes Advocate's experienced management team and effective management practices should also ensure strong relative performance over the longer term.

Advocate is counter-party to three floating to fixed rate swaps with a total notional value of $326.3 million against its series 2008C VRDBs. The mark to market on the swaps at Sept. 30, 2012 was approximately negative $96.2 million requiring $5.7 million in collateral be posted.

Advocate is an integrated health care system composed of 10 acute care hospitals and an integrated children's hospital (totaling approximately 3,200 licensed beds), primary and specialty physician services, home health, hospice, outpatient centers, via over 250 sites serving the Chicago metropolitan area and central Illinois. Total revenues in audited fiscal 2011 were $4.65 billion (reflects Fitch's reclassification of bad debt to an expense).

Advocate's disclosure includes annual audited financial statements as well as quarterly unaudited balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement, an extensive MD&A, and utilization statistics. The information is posted to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board's EMMA system. In addition, management holds routine calls with rating agencies and with investors. Fitch considers Advocate's disclosure standards to be best practice.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's Revenue Supported Rating Criteria, this action was informed by information from Citigroup as Underwriter.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria', dated Jun. 12, 2012;

--'Nonprofit Hospitals and Health Systems Rating Criteria', dated July 23, 2012;

--'Criteria for Assigning Short-Term Ratings Based on Internal Liquidity', dated June 15, 2012.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=681015

Nonprofit Hospitals and Health Systems Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=683418

Criteria for Assigning Short-Term Ratings Based on Internal Liquidity

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=681822

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Fitch Ratings
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Emily E. Wadhwani, +1 312-368-3347
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