Presidential Race in the Hands of 10 States and One Report
A weekend Black Book poll indicates that Friday's jobs report will meaningfully affect voter turnout in crucial swing states, and decide the presidential race.
Clearwater, Florida (PRWEB) October 28, 2012
According to a Black Book poll, a worsening job report on Friday will distress undecided voters and significantly help Romney in the powerful swing states of Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Wisconsin. Increased unemployment numbers will dissuade voters against Obama in Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. This reaction of declining job figures will postulate a Romney victory.
A static jobs report will keep the most undecided voters home from the polls for both candidates particularly in Virginia and Pennsylvania. A lack of notable job creation and steady unemployment will upset Obama support most in Nevada and Ohio.
However, Coloradans indicate that constant unemployment nationally as motivation to support Obama.
Romney will gain turnout in Wisconsin from a stagnant economy report but face more apathy for turnout from the undecided of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Improved job numbers will have greatest optimistic effect on voter turnout for Obama in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and North Carolina. Signs of a better job situation will also have a halo effect on Romney's turnout in Ohio and Colorado. Pennsylvania and Florida supporters will be less encouraged to turnout on Tuesday to support Romney on improved job numbers. Obama should be awarded another four year term if the job numbers are hefty enough to conjecture the verge of economic recovery. Improved job numbers will also dissuade enough voter distress response for both candidates, which would impact the turnout of committed voters as well.
“After months of campaigning to affect the undecided vote, the motivation to turnout for either candidate in the crucial swing states will come down to one late stage unemployment report,” says Black Book's Managing Partner, Douglas Brown. “Barring any other major event from Friday to Tuesday, the jobs reaction in the swing states (in order of result priority) Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina will determine the next president. “
The swing states voters with the highest anticipated reaction and turnout to the jobs report are Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Colorado. Swing states where the jobs report will have the small impact on turnout are New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia.
Researchers and pollsters have witnessed for decades that people will conform to the majority opinion on the leading candidate or issue. ” As there is no clear candidate leading and the economy is undoubtedly the foremost issue, the reaction to this week's jobs report will shift votes as soon as it is interpreted by the media”, adds Brown.
The survey polled 3,802 voters in ten key swing states. According to Black Book results, the probable impact of Friday's job numbers project:
A worsened Job Report will increase Romney turnout and support in all swing states but have the greatest pro-Romney impact in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado.
A worsened Job Report will decrease Obama turnout and support greatest in Nevada, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio.
A static Job Report will increase Romney turnout and support greatest in Wisconsin but negatively affect Romney support and turnout greatest in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
A static Job Report will increase Obama turnout and support greatest in Colorado but negatively affect Obama support and turnout greatest in Nevada and Ohio.
An improved Job Report will increase Obama turnout and support across all swing states but greatest in Pennsylvania, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
An improved Job Report will decrease Romney turnout greatest in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but see optimistic Ohio and Colorado Romney reaction as well.
About Black Book Polls
Black Book Polls, a division of Brown-Wilson Group is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of opinion information. Black Book Polls engages in satisfaction surveying and client experience tracking across the globe, public opinion in current events, B2B confidence, business topics, information technology advances, healthcare reform, and the approval ratings of thousands companies and corporations.
Doug Brown and Scott Wilson, principals of Brown-Wilson Group are also the co-authors of the bestselling, “The Black Book of Outsourcing” (John Wiley & Sons Publishers, 2005, 2009) and “The Black Book of Economic Recovery” (early 2014)
Contact, Doug Brown Office:
Black Book Polls, 2737 Enterprise Road East, Ste 131, Clearwater FL 33759
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