Research and Markets: Southern Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7vvqxk/southern_africa) has announced the addition of the "Southern Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2012" report to their offering.
The Southern Africa Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Southern Africa's agribusiness service.
BMI View: We have updated some of our forecasts from the previous South West Africa report, specifically revising down corn production for Angola and Zambia while revising up production for Botswana. Overall, there is relatively little change in the grain sector for these countries, as the key importers and exporters will remain that way over the coming seasons.
Food security in the region is largely stable, aside from pockets of poor or rural households that will suffer from localised shortages, mainly coming from bad weather. In terms of the sugar sector, we believe Zambia offers the best opportunities. Indeed, Zambian producers there have expanded production for the 2011/12 season due to high demand from the region and relatively high sugar prices. Sugar production in the rest of the region should be comparatively insignificant.
- Zambian corn production growth to 2015/16: 30% to 3.3mn tonnes. This will come as government support and expectation of high corn prices should lead to a continued rise in corn plantings in the coming years.
- Angolan sugar production growth to 2015/16: 68.8% to 84,400 tonnes. This will mainly come from base effects, as we do not yet see a significant government commitment to the agricultural sector and believe the country will remain a net importer over the long term.
- 2012 regional average real GDP growth: 7.2% (up from 5.1% in 2011).
- Average Consumer price inflation: 8.2% y-o-y in 2012 (down from 8.4% y-o-y in 2011).
Industry Developments Despite revising down Angolan and Zambian grain production, BMI believes that south west African food security should be fairly stable in H212, with increases in local prices stemming from higher import costs for major importers. Rains have generally been favourable in many areas, with Zambia seeing the most abundant rains and Namibia seeing arguably the worst.
Overall, production should come in slightly less year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011/12 (largely due to the downgrades to Zambia and Angola). Zambia should remain a key exporter in the region, while Namibia, Angola and Botswana should remain net importers for the foreseeable future. Below we provide a summary of crop developments for the individual countries.
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7vvqxk/southern_africa