Market Overview

Pre-Market Global Review - 8/15/13 - Dow Falls

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Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 5:10 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar –Down at 81.535, the Sept US Dollar is down 223 ticks and is trading at 81.535.             
Energies – September Oil is up at 107.50.        
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 5 ticks and is trading at 132.25.      
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1680.00 and is down 8 ticks.  
Gold – The October gold contract is trading up at 1339.20 and is up 56 ticks from its close.
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is   normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa.  The indices are down and the US dollar is trading lower which is not correlated.  Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
 
Most of Asia lower with the exception of the Indian Sensex exchange which closed higher.   As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following                     
1.  FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 8:15 AM EST.  This is major.  (Yes, again)      
2.  Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.         
3.  Core CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.  
4.  CPI is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.    
5.  Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.
6.  TIC Long Term Purchases are out at 9 AM EST.  This is not major.
7.  Capacity Utilization Rate is out at 9:15 AM EST.  This is not major.
8.  Industrial Production is out at 9:15 AM EST.  This is not major.
9.  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
10. NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
   
  
 Currencies  As a follow up to our discussion yesterday concerning the Swiss Franc, the chart below will show a blue arrow at around 8:30 AM EST which would present a long opportunity for this currency.  As a trader you could have netted 20 -30 ticks on this trade.  Bear in mind that each tick on the Swiss Franc is worth $12.50 USD.  Notice that the background color in the chart turned green as the morning progressed which is indicative of a long trade.  Today may pose a bit of a challenge as we have 10 economic reports, 6 of which are major so bear that in mind if trading today.  Please note that in the near future I'll be speaking with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades to discuss the enhanced version of this charting package.
 

 
 Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades
 

Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside.  Why?  The Bonds were trading higher and Gold turned lower as the morning progressed.  Europe was trading mixed despite the fact that they had good economic reports.  The net result being that the Dow lost 113 points and the other indices lost ground as well.  But as readers of this newsletter, you knew that at 6 AM.  Today we are not dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside.   Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

As a follow up to the Binary Options webinar with Mr. Dan Cook, Director of Business for Nadex;  the webinar was very informative and is about an hour in length.  TraderPlanet has agreed to offer a replay of the session.  As promised, here's the link from TraderPlanet:  http://www.traderplanet.com/videos/view/113429-maximize-your-trading-using-binary-options/  
 
Awhile ago we ran a story on Binary Options and the benefits thereof.  TraderPlanet has decided to publish that story in two parts, Part One was released last Thursday and Part Two will be released sometime next week.  Now you may or may not be familiar with TraderPlanet, but if you've been trading for any length of time, you are familiar with SFO (Stock, Futures & Options) magazine.  TraderPlanet bought SFO about a year ago.  The article can be viewed at:

 

http://www.traderplanet.com/articles/view/164634-dispelling-the-myths-on-binary-options/

I've also included the interview I did with Dan Cook, Director of Business Development for Nadex, it can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/ENRRbwH6A_o

Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at: 


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation
 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades.  John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades.  John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders.  To download the article I've written,  go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s0e8e37fe5944fc79

My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604

Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future.  Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.

As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is declining.  This is normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday September crude dropped to a low of 105.63 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $104 a barrel and resistance at 108.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the late August/September time frame.      
- Asian Contagion - happening now 

Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining.  This is normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 

Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: Pre-Market Outlook Markets

 

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