Roku's Earnings Exhibited Its Leadership Position - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA)

Roku Inc ROKU has been given a vote of confidence a day ahead of its earnings many analysts were expecting impressive third quarter earnings. But, unlike its past seven earnings report which exhibited a blowout growth exceeding estimates, Roku's third quarter earnings results had beat Wall Street's expectations but still causing its stock to drop 16% in trading to close at $118.46 a share while now climbing back to $130.

Expectations Vs. Reality

Prior to its earnings report, Rosenblatt raised its price target on Roku to $159 from $134, estimating that the third-quarter earnings and guidance are set to outperform expectations. And revenue did continue soaring both on absolute as well as per-user basis.
But, Roku ended up reporting a loss of 22 cents a share, compared to 9 cents in the year-ago quarter. And along with its mixed third quarter results, investors were further discouraged by Roku's disappointing fourth quarter guidance with a decreased outlook on profitability due to a recent acquisition and operational costs of international growth.

Overall, on October 30th, Roku announced what seemed all positive results and better than-expected third quarter revenues. Active accounts increased by 1.7 million users with the company beating revenue estimates, achieving a growth of 50% year-over-year resulting to $260.9 million. Roku even increased its revenue estimates for the fourth quarter to $396 million and to $1.11 billion for the full 2019 fiscal year, but investors seemed to focus only on the net loss.

Competition Is Getting Fired Up – But Is This Really A Threat To Roku?

Comcast Corporation CMCSA has launched its Xfinity Flex streaming box with Martin Luther King, Jr.'s daughter accusing the company of trying to "dismantle" the Civil Rights Act of 1866, as the company heads to US Supreme court, among many other regulatory pressures calling for the company to be broken up by US Rep. Bobby Rush (D—Ill.).

Facebook Inc FB launched its Portal TV streaming device along with an experimental news content section to prevent its users going to other news sites. For years now, the company has been quietly changing its algorithms and enhancing its content, up to the point of ‘cloning' Snap Inc's SNAP Snapchat's features to appeal to the Generation Z users.

Apple Inc.'s AAPL up and coming services have enabled the company to hit an all-time-high with a revenue of record $64 billion, despite a slump in its iPhone sales which were always the main trigger behind its revenues. So, Apple's strategy of shifting away from hardware to subscription services definitely seems to be working. Moreover, Roku just announced that its updated mobile app can work on the Apple Watch, turning it into a device capable of much more than just switching channels.

The Walt Disney Company's DIS Disney+ is available on both Roku streaming devices and Roku TV so family-friendly content in the form of hundreds of films and thousands of TV episodes not just from Disney but also from Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, National Geographic will all be available to Roku users.

So overall, Roku is on the winning side as a distributor since it gets revenue from Apple as well as Disney and Netflix Inc NFLX. And it is no wonder many analysts believe that Roku will continue benefiting materially from all this competitive activity and perhaps even outperform its fourth quarter guidance. Comparing to Netflix's most expensive streaming package, Roku's average revenue per user over the trailing 12 months is 40% higher. Moreover, current trends indicate there's still plenty of upside left for Roku to further boost its performance.
Overall, Roku remains on its enviable throne being a top distributor and growing with its ‘so-called' competitors. Roku still has a unique position on the market thanks to its unique business model – a rare one where everyone wins.

Outlook

Many analysts expect that it will be challenging for Roku to make a profit in the upcoming few years due to the company's costly international expansion during which it will also have to compete for TV licensing contracts. But, Roku has positioned itself to be a key benefactor of the shift from traditional TV to streaming. And just like the previous time its stock dropped due to unnecessary panic, many analysts and investor still seem blindsided to the fact that this is one rare company that is flourishing in a relatively safe position despite the storm around it. So, Wall Street's post-earnings reaction seems to be purely based on the company's reduced outlook on profitability as the company targeted an adjusted EBITDA of $30 million for the fiscal year despite the $35 million expected.

And considering this decision was taken as the company will be focused on investing in sustained growth, this does not seem as a sign of an underlying problem, especially since its stock has soared almost 400% since January, and ended this quarter with an even improved Q4 revenue outlook. Roku's platform business which grew by more than half is just one of its strengths that will enable the company not just to survive the streaming wars but to emerge as one of the key providers of the future of television.

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