Apple Gets Exempt From Some Tariffs But External Pressures Are Still There

From Trump's impeachment saga to Brexit's deadline, October will by no means lack excitement.

The earnings season has started with weak results. Furthermore, the market got additional tsunamis throughout September such as the US-China trade wars, but it showed surprising resilience as it made it just fine. But many analysts fear that this is an alarm for a weakening economy, especially if the so-called jinx month of October lives up to its historic reputation, being a label for market crashes in 1929, 1987, and 2008. Meanwhile, companies like Apple, Inc. AAPL have a lot betting on their quarter earning's report that is due on October 30^th.

Fourth quarter earnings report

The report will include the first week of iPhone 11 so we will get to see the first impact of its launch. The revenue for the quarter is expected to reach the range somewhere between $61 billion and $64 billion and operating expenses are expected to fall between $8.7 billion and $8.8 billion.

US – China Trade Tensions

Trump's administration seems everything but near a truce but talks are set to take place in Washington, D.C., on October 10. The escalating U.S. trade war with China has already gained momentum with consequences such as delaying capital expenditure spending plans and affecting hiring plans that were revised down. But as far as Apple is concerned, although Trump's policy did threaten its "golden-egg," Tim Cook's diplomatic skills resulted in tariff waivers, enabling the company to continue manufacturing its MacBook Pros in the U.S. But Apple didn't manage to dodge all the bullets as Bloomberg reported on Monday that the company will be subject to 25% of the tariffs that refer to its Chinese-made components.

As for China, fortunately, its interests mostly align with Apple's as the company cultivated its facilities in the country and developed a strong system that created 4.8 million jobs. So even though the country could make things difficult through imposed taxes and regulatory pressures (it won't be the first time!), China now needs Apple on its side.

US Impeachment Saga

Whichever way it ends, the impeachment saga is not likely to cause a stock market crash as stated by Trump. But the chaos is definitely bothering Wall Street as there are bigger domestic financial matters that aren't likely to get resolved in the near future. The federal budget deficits and tax issues are here to stay and those do have a chance of pushing the US.. into a recession in 2020. And decreased consumer power can affect Apple whose future heavily relies on its loyal consumers continuing to buy its products.

Brexit saga coming to an end?

Although this is not the first time UK was this close to leaving the EU, October 31 is the new date. Finance minister Sajid Javid is hoping for an agreement, but we could also see it exit the European Union without it. Apple has already raised its pricing structures several times since the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 to reflect the sharp depreciation of the pound, the latest being January's 25% increase in App Store prices.

Outlook

Apple had its best June quarter this year. It was driven by record sales and growth of the wearables segment yet many found that innovation was a no show at its September event. Can Apple TV+ that will be launched on November 1, featuring creations from world' greatest story tellers shake things up a bit? A slowing economy with all these uncertainties will surely keep many investors on their toes.

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