Friday's Market Minute: Laboring Toward A Breakout

It’s been a month of ups and downs for equities. After the Aug. 2 close of 2,934.50, S&P 500 futures plunged by as much as 5.4% during the next two days. Although the contract eventually found support near 2,820 and recovered to 2,930, prices have since seesawed between these levels two more times. After all the tempestuous movement, the /ES is up only fractionally since Aug. 2 and near this familiar point of resistance again on the eve of Labor Day.

Meanwhile, Russell 2000 futures are not showing quite the same resilience as the other three major indexes. The small-caps are seeing lower highs and lower lows, including a breach of the 1,460 level earlier this week. In addition to being a recent support area, this level also matches the lows from June’s downward move, as well as the tipping point before the major selloff late last year.

Bulls and bears seem to have their battle lines clearly drawn, and it will be interesting to see if one side blinks heading into this long weekend. A move one way or the other could become even more forceful if traders grow wary of holding positions into the long weekend, or get squeezed and forced to liquidate.

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