TrueCar Sees September Auto Sales Down ~2% Year-Over-Year

The current estimate may incite investor sentiment and speculation that some big automakers such as General Motors Company GM and Ford Motor Company F are likely to report a drop in unit sales for the third quarter.

Related Link: Citi Previews September Auto Sales Data

TrueCar expects seasonally adjusted annualized rate for light vehicle sales of 17.4 million units for September compared to 18.0 million recorded in the year-ago month. In a preview, Citi sees auto sales running "in the mid-17 million range." Although the sales could fall on a year-over-year basis, Citi analysts see gain on a month-over-month basis as August witnessed 16.9 million-unit sales.

Despite the unit-wide sales weakness, the average transaction prices remained strong driven by luxury and SUV vehicles on demand from consumers. While non-luxury, mass-market brands would likely fall 2.6 percent, luxury models decline could be 0.2 percent, according to TrueCar.

The September sales trend could suggest that some of the automakers might report a drop in overall unit sales for the third quarter. For instance, General Motors and Ford Motor reported sales drop of 1.9 percent and 3 percent respectively in July. Similarly, in August, these two companies suffered a drop of 5 percent and 8.4 percent respectively.

For September, TrueCar estimates GM and Ford to suffer 0.5 percent and 9.6 percent drop in unit sales. The continuous drop in the three-month period suggests these two are likely to report a drop in unit sales as far as American market is concerned.

TrueCar forecast for other automakers is as follows:

• Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV FCAU could suffer 6.1 percent sales drop.
• Honda Motor Co Ltd (ADR) HMC might report 0.9 percent sales growth.
• Hyundai Motor America likely to report 3.1 percent fall in sales.
• Nissan Motor Co Ltd (ADR) NSANY might announce 0.6 percent fall in units.
• Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) TM likely to gain 0.3 percent.
• Volkswagen AG (ADR) VLKAY could suffer 4.3 percent drop in unit sales.

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