Will the Average Consumer Buy a Budget Tesla?

Tesla Motors Inc TSLA is expected to start taking pre-orders for the Model 3 next month. The Model 3 comes with a $35,000 price tag before state and federal electric vehicle incentives, putting it right in the right in the middle of the mass-market adoption price range, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.

Both the Model 3 and General Motors Company GM's Chevy Bolt will retail for under $30,000 after a $7,500 electric-vehicle federal tax credit.

Tesla faces a slight disadvantage on the federal incentive front, as it only applies to the first 200,000 electric vehicles a manufacturer produces. A Bloomberg analyst projected Tesla would reach this mark in mid-2018 with an estimated 50 percent growth rate.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas told Benzinga in February that he doesn't expect Tesla to break that mark until 2019.

GM's initial electric vehicle, the EV1, sold for around $52,000 in current dollars when its limited run was introduced in the mid-1990s.

GM's electric vehicle policy has veered wildly in the past 15 years, from the 2003 recall that inspired the documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car," to the 2010 release of the Chevy Volt, to the "beat Tesla to the mass market" impetus driving the Bolt's upcoming release.

Another hurdle Tesla must jump is regulatoryseveral states have outlawed Tesla's direct-to-consumer sales model, while GM has extensive dealership infrastructure.

The Street has a lot of faith in Tesla, however: a tweet from Elon Musk can shoot the company's stock up, while record sales and special dividends can't inspire investor confidence in GM or Ford Motor Company F.

Tesla shares were down slightly as shareholders anticipate a quarterly earnings report after market close Wednesday.

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