TrueCar Announces Forecast of 16.9 Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate, 'Solid March Auto Sales Amid Lingering Winter Weather'

TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, projects the pace of March auto sales expanded to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million new units on continued strong consumer demand even with one less weekend than a year ago and harsh weather conditions across the country. TrueCar Logo. New vehicle sales, including fleet, should reach 1,524,700 units for the month, down 0.8 percent from a year ago. Adjusting for one less selling day compared with March 2014, deliveries should rise 3.1 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, while the SAAR is up from 16.5 million. "Spring has officially sprung but much of the country is still pushing away snow piled up at the doorstep," said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights for TrueCar. "Given what a strong month last March was, this slight decline in total volume isn't surprising. We're bullish on the retail outlook for the second half of the year and the industry remains on track to reach TrueCar's 17 million-unit projection for 2015." The new vehicle sales expansion, on pace to rise for a sixth consecutive year, coincides with improving economic indicators including GDP, housing starts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and wages and salaries, all of which are projected to strengthen in 2015. Similarly, new home sales reached a seven-year high in February while the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.2 percent after three straight months of declines. Fuji Heavy Industries Inc.'s Subaru brand may be the biggest gainer, followed by Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., with respective increases of 10.6 percent, 4.5 percent and 4.2 percent. FCA and its Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Ram and Fiat brands, should report a 1.3 percent gain even compared with March 2014's strong volume. This should be 60 consecutive months of year-over-year of sales gains for FCA. Incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,691 per vehicle in March, down 1.3 percent from a year ago and up 0.4 percent over February 2015. "It's positive that incentives aren't rising from the year-ago level," said Lyman. "This and steady demand for light trucks means automakers can expect continued revenue gains." Other key findings for March: o Expected registration mix of 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3 percent fleet versus 81.9 percent retail and 18.1 percent fleet last March. o Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 3,581,085, down 0.9 percent compared with March 2014. Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume: Unit Sales Manufacturer March 2015 Forecast % Change vs. March 2014 FCA 197,500 1.3% Ford 230,000 -5.5% GM 256,900 0.3% Honda 139,300 4.5% Hyundai 61,500 -8.2% Kia 52,500 -4.2% Nissan 137,200 -8.0% Subaru 49,200 10.6% Toyota 224,500 4.2% Volkswagen Group 49,000 -11.1% Industry 1,524,700 -0.8% Market Share Manufacturer March 2015 Forecast March 2014 February 2015 FCA 13.0% 12.7% 13.0% Ford 15.1% 15.8% 14.3% GM 16.8% 16.7% 18.4% Honda 9.1% 8.7% 8.4% Hyundai 4.0% 4.4% 4.2% Kia 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% Nissan 9.0% 9.7% 9.4% Subaru 3.2% 2.9% 3.3% Toyota 14.7% 14.0% 14.3% Volkswagen Group 3.2% 3.6% 3.2% Incentive Spending Incentive per Incentive per Incentive per Unit % Total Spending Manufacturer Unit March Unit % Change Change vs. February March 2015 2015 Forecast vs. March 2015 Forecast 2014 FCA $3,451 7.4% 2.2% $679,409,675 Ford $2,864 -14.3% 3.9% $658,645,511 GM $3,137 -7.8% 1.1% $805,807,435 Honda $1,957 -7.3% 8.3% $272,597,558 Hyundai $2,300 25.3% 6.5% $141,450,000 Kia $3,054 26.8% 4.1% $160,323,788 Nissan $2,547 -5.8% -19.9% $349,495,000 Subaru $846 6.5% 6.0% $41,618,615 Toyota $2,000 13.6% 5.7% $448,933,573 Volkswagen $2,765 -1.0% 4.6% $134,648,960 Group Industry $2,691 -1.3% 0.4% $4,096,412,725