Apple Adjusts iMac Shipments; Low Demand or Supply Shortage?

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Investors may have noticed a trend after Apple
AAPL
announced the new iMac.
First there was a
report
claiming that the company would delay shipments of the 27-inch model because of mass production issues. Then the company reportedly
reduced iMac shipments by 40 percent
in the fourth quarter. After that Apple was expected to
increase iMac shipments
during the first quarter, which also happens to be one of the slowest shopping periods of the year. All of these reports came from DigiTimes. Now the famed supply chain publication is throwing another story into the mix, warning readers that component shipments
may not bounce back
to January levels. In short, iMac component shipments declined in February because there were fewer working days during the Lunar New Year. According to DigiTimes, "The sources pointed out that their component supply volumes in the fourth quarter of 2012 and in January 2013 were both higher than iMac's sales during the corresponding periods, indicating that Apple still has a high level of component inventories." Apple does not release the sales figures of individual items. Instead, the company combines the sales of all items into a few categories (iPhone, iPad, iPod, Mac) and publishes the data. During the fiscal 2010 first quarter (which covers the fall 2009 sales period), Apple sold
3.36 million Macs
. This represented a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago period. Apple continued to increase Mac sales during
FQ1 2011
and
FQ1 2012
. Last fall, however, Mac sales declined by roughly 20 percent. While the company sold 5.2 million Macs in the fall of 2011, Apple only sold
4.1 million units
during the same period last year. The decline could be attributed to a variety of things, including the
ongoing destruction
of the computer market. Since Apple combines the sales of all Macs into one category, it is possible that the 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina Display -- which
received a price cut
last month -- has flopped. The 13-inch MacBook Air received a price cut last summer, indicating that the item may be experiencing some pressure at retail. iMacs have yet to receive a formal price cut. However, there is some evidence that the newer and thinner model may not be flying off store shelves.
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Apple.com
is currently able to ship the new iMac -- both the 21.5- and 27-inch models -- within 24 hours. The items ship equally as fast in
Canada
and
Mexico
. In
China
, customers can have a 21.5-inch model shipped in three to five days. The 27-inch model ships even faster, leaving the warehouse in just one to three days. (Interestingly, Apple's Chinese website has imposed a limit of two units per customer.)
Brazilian
customers can get the 27-inch iMac shipped in just one day, or have the 21.5-inch version shipped in three to five days. In
Australia
, all models wills hip in three to five days. Only those across the pond will have to wait a little longer. In the
United Kingdom
, ship times are at five to seven days for the smallest iMac and one to two weeks for the 27-inch model. In general, Apple is not making consumers wait long (if at all) for the iMac to ship. This suggests that, as one of the DigiTimes reports indicated, the company has more than enough iMacs to go around despite the component shortages. While this is far from proof that the iMac is beginning to wane, the
declining sales
have to be coming from somewhere. Until Apple comes clean, investors will have to continue speculating about the source.
Follow me @LouisBedigianBZ
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