Market Overview

USD / CAD – Receiving Ongoing Strong Support Around 0.9830

In the last couple of months or so, the Canadian dollar has eased back through the significant level at 1 and then slowly moved its way back towards the strong support level at 0.99.  For a couple of weeks, the Canadian dollar settled very comfortably on a support level just above 0.99 at 0.9920, however in early December, this level gave way and the Canadian dollar continued its decline.  Since the middle of October, the Canadian dollar has been on a roller coaster ride moving back and forth between 0.99 and 1 and even though it made a strong attempt to push through 1 and stay there on several occasions, it was met with overwhelming supply which resulted in an eventual move back below.

Over the course of the last month, the Canadian dollar has attempted to climb and return to 1 however it has experienced significant resistance anywhere near 1 and the support at 0.99 has given way again too.  It appears to be presently placing great pressure on the medium term support level around 0.9830 and it will be interesting to see whether it can return back to its September levels around 0.9700.

(Daily chart below)

USDCAD Technical Analysis Daily Chart.

USD/CAD

   Jan 16 at 22:40 GMT
0.9860 / 63    H: 0.9877    L: 0.9846

 

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9830 0.9750 0.9900 1.0000 1.0100

 

USD / CAD Long – Short Ratio

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions for the USD / CAD. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

USD/CAD Technical

  • During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the Canadian dollar has pushed off the short term congestion level around 0.9860.
  • For the last couple of months of last year, the 0.99 level was a solid support level however this has been broken through strongly on a couple of occasions since.   This level may provide some resistance should the USD / CAD rally and return to 0.99.
  • Current range:  just above congestion of 0.9850 at 0.9860.

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9830, and 0.9750.
  • Above: 0.9900, 1.0000 and 1.0100.

 

January 17

  • AU 0:30 (GMT) Employment (Dec)
  • AU 0:30 (GMT) Unemployment (Dec)
  • CH 8:15 (GMT) Producer & Import prices (Dec)
  • US 13:30 (GMT) Building Permits (Dec)
  • US 13:30 (GMT) Housing Starts (Dec)
  • US 15:00 (GMT) Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jan)

 

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