Market Overview

OPEX, Oh Boy… Looking for Any Selling to Exhaust at $ES_F 1403 and Heading to $ES_F 1424

Around the Globe

 

    Asia – CLOSED
    • Shanghai (China) +0.45%
    • Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -0.41%
    • Nikkei (Japan)-0.05%

Europe as of 11:45am EDT

    • DAX (Germany) +0.19%
    • FTSE (UK) -0.48%
  •  

Today's Economic News:

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The only thing really to watch (outside the auctions) is the NY Empire.  Watch the auctions as the cliff looms closer, see if cash is chasing safety… tax safety, in this case.

 

Quote of the Day:
Keep your fears to yourself, but share your inspiration with others.
–Robert Louis Stevenson

Current Breadth Readings: (click here to see all our breadth charts)

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We will give the Zweig a break today and show that bounce on Friday in the New Highs/ New Lows index.  We are expecting a hold here as we enter into OPEX.

 

ES SP500 Futures Comments:

Short: 1414
Long: 1389
Fair Value: 6.10

 

As of the new year, I will be moving planning to the SPX cash index, hence the addition of the fair value above.

For today, we like the overnight reversal pattern that was put in with a double bottom just around 6am eastern at the 1409 area.   We think the upside is topped for today at 1424.  If we do get some rotten news or selling, we think that should exhaust in the 1403 area.  Those are our lines in the sand today.  A close above 1420 is a vindication for the bulls.

image

 

US Dollar DX Futures Comments:

It is the action of the dollar that is giving us some back-bone to stay rigid on the bullish call.  We want to see the 79.50 area tested.

image

TLT Twenty Year Bond ETF Comments:

After tantalizing us with a breakdown, TLT is hooking back up.  We don't liken that as far as justification for the bullish call into the end of the year.  There is a fear of some last minute mattress stuffing as doubt about a fiscal cliff resolution rises toward the end of the year.  When we start hearing about “fixing it retroactively” we will know that the President's mind is on Hawaii and that Boehner is in the tanning booth.  

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