Facebook is Worth $75 Billion--If You Let It

In her recent op-ed on Facebook's IPO in the

, Lori Andrews noted that the company "made $3.2 billion in advertising revenue last year, 85 percent of its total revenue". That means it would take a little over 23 years for Facebook to produce enough cash to meet its $75 billion valuation. Of course, this equation is too simple. Facebook is still

. More users means more ad revenue. Facebook may also

. It doesn't sell the info

, but financial pressure may motivate the company to start selling it again. Increasing adoption of Facebook would also mean that it would be difficult for a boycott of the company to make a dent in its user base and revenue stream. There would just be too many people on the site, and many of those people just won't care enough about Facebook's privacy policy (or lack thereof) to leave the site. On the other hand, the company may find selling data harder as regulatory pressure hits the company. The European Commission, usually on the vanguard of personal privacy issues, has

Facebook on the issue of selling user data. American politicians aren't eager to follow their European colleagues. On the one hand, you have Barack Obama

in an attempt to score political points in a struggling economy. While Republican hopefuls Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich haven't mentioned the company, they might start soon. Facebook's recent move to

(political action committee) with a humble $170,000 seedling suggests that the company is ready to start swaying politics with the big boys. Its influence would probably translate into greater freedom to exploit user information for fun and profit. So would this mean Facebook would reap greater rewards from its massive user base? Probably. The only potential downside to an aggressive exploitation of user data would be a widespread user revolt amongst the site's 800 plus million users. It's difficult to imagine any political movement garnering that much support. Unless Facebook began beating puppies, it is hard to imagine its user base falling to even half its current number anytime soon. A bigger threat is the chance of a new trend coming to replace it. Social networking is by definition influenced by the herd. If another site gained sufficient traction to move attention away from Facebook, we could see it taking its place in the Internet Graveyard next to Myspace, Friendster, and the like. A better, easier, friendlier option might challenge Facebook in the near future, even if no such challenge has shown up yet. While the chance of an upstart challenging Facebook exists, it's remote. Massive websites have begun to establish themselves in ways that smaller but still trendy sites have not. Youtube was challenged by Metacafe, Veoh, Liveleak, and others of arguably better quality, but it has retained its top spot for half a decade. Facebook's story will likely be similar, as users will fear being alienated from their social networks if they leave, despite what Zuckerberg may be doing with their information. Until people are more concerned with their data than keeping in touch with family and friends, Facebook's ad revenue is virtually guaranteed. Since people instinctually care about their social relationships, family, and friends more than lofty ideals such as user data, Facebook's status quo is safe. Still, each of its users will always have the power to take that revenue away from Zuckerberg and the company's future shareholders. The only thing in their way is human nature.