Barron's Recap: The Bull Has Room to Run

This weekend in Barron's online: a special report on the record Dow and the prospects for actively managed ETFs, the buyout of Dell, and Western Union and Uni-Pixel.

"

" by Gene Epstein. In this special report, Barron's "jubilantly joins the hoopla" over the Dow reaching a record 15,000 and pats itself on the back for predicting it last year. The article points out that, despite the record high, the performance of the market over the past five years is still well below average. And lower-than-average returns over five years commonly are followed by higher-than-average ones in the succeeding two years. Barron's calls this the "rubber-band effect." That is, when markets are stretched to the downside, they tend to snap back. The same is true of markets stretched to the upside. The article predicts the Dow could break 18,500 in the next two years. See the article to find out how they analyzed 142 years of market performance in rolling five-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year periods, adjusted for inflation and accounting for dividends, to calculate the more than 18,500 Dow high in the next two years. And Barron's points out that they predicted Dow 15,000 more than a year ago, in a cover story of the February 13, 2012 edition. The special report on the record Dow continues with articles from Andrew Bary and Michael Kahn.

In "What the Smart Money Is Buying -- and Selling," Andrew Bary offers a review of what top investment managers who spoke at the Sohn conference are thinking. Bullish plays include a yellow-pages company and a Norwegian offshore driller. Bearish ones include Canadian banks. "New Leaders Drive the Bull's Charge" by Michael Kahn shares why technology, energy and materials stocks are taking over from traditional defensive ones. The article also discusses why

could break higher.

Brendan Conway's "Going Active" is an ETF special report that suggests that actively managed exchange traded funds were the "biggest story that never happened." And the article shares why that could be about to change. "A Better Deal for Dell" by Andrew Bary investigates how the newly unveiled proposal from Carl Icahn and Southeastern Asset Management for the buyout of

should provide both cash and equity to existing shareholders. In "Western Union: Calling to Investors" by Christopher C. Williams, the focus is on money-transfer company

and why it may see business accelerate as the economy picks up, especially now that it has reduced fees. Shares of

have rallied sharply on hopes for the company's touchscreen technology, says Avi Salzman's "Out of Touch?" But stiff competition and a history of product disappointments signal that investors should be wary. Jack Willoughby's "Willing to Wait" is a profile of small-cap manager Chuck Royce of the Royce Pennsylvania Mutual fund. He blames the Fed for creating a market in which quality counts for so little, and he discusses some key picks. "Secrets of a Valley Guy" by Alexander Eule features Mark Curtis, now a leading financial advisor to tech entrepreneurs and CEOs, who was born in and raised in Silicon Valley. Curtis shares how he helps his clients stay ahead. In Andrew Bary's "Why REITs Will Stay on a Roll," Mike Kirby of Green Street Advisors shares why he likes

,

and

. "How Much Is Too Much?" is an editorial commentary by Thomas G. Donlan in which he discusses an experiment that found more health care did not provide better health.

Columns in this weekend's Barron's discuss: