Coffee At 5-Month Low; What's Next?

On Wednesday, NY Coffee Futures (Arabica Coffee ) reached a five-month low. Dollar strength and supply news contributed to the latest round of pressure on coffee prices. Producers and growers who export coffee have a bit of extra incentive to market the coffee to foreign buyers. Looking ahead into 2015, estimates of the global supply/demand balance are wide. They range from a deficit of 7 million bags to a surplus of 2.5 million. It appears the average view is near a deficit of 3 million bags. What can change? Weather is always a factor and may come into play once again. Chatter is beginning to surface about an El-Nino event during the first part of 2015 and its impact on coffee production in Vietnam. However, some analysts have been predicting an El-Nino event for a while and it has not surfaced.