Have we been forewarned about a drop in US manufacturing? via ForexLive

The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index fell last week to 14.69 from 25.60 and that could set the scene for the manufacturing data today.

Although it's not a big indicator in itselfs it is looked at as the first early data point for manufacturing in the new month.

To see if it does have any bearing I've cobbled a chart together with the other main manufacturing indicators.

US manufacturing indicators

Time frame wise the Empire state leads from Markit and Philly, then ISM.

If anything there is more of a correlation between Markit front running the Empire data and the Philly front running the ISM.

Either way both the Markit and Empire numbers are potentially pointing to a fall in the Philly and ISM this month.  We'll see in around 20 minutes.

Also of note is the Leading indicators which are up at 15.00 gmt+1. Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon has noted that they should come in very strong as most of the forecasts were made before the big jump in building permits.

Forewarned is forearmed

With three data points out at the same though it might be tough to see the woods for the trees. Worth bearing in mind though.

The dollar may fall if the manufacturing data is worse than expected but that might be limited in this bullish environment. On the flipside the market may start to adjust any Jackson Hole expectations on big variations.

posted via ForexLive