The USDJPY remains stuck in a range – above and below trend line resistance – with the 100 and 200 hour MAs in between (blue and green lines) There have been a couple weak attempts to push outside the boundaries- once on the topside on Friday and today on the downside in the first few hours of trading. Each failed. Currently, the pair has been able to extend above the 100 hour MA which gives it a little more bullish bias (100 hour MA comes in at 118.05 level – blue line). The topside trend line is currently trading at 118.58.
USDJPY is more bullish above the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines) but needs that sustained break above the trend line.
The USDJPY has been taking a back seat to the CHF and the EUR over the last few weeks (in reality it has been in an up and down range since peaking at 121.83 in December – see chart below). Looking at the daily chart, the pairs low price over that period was close to the 38.2% of the trend move up from the October low. The price moved below trend line support line in January, but the low has been able to hold above the recent lows and the 38.2% retracement. It is a matter of getting out of the rut.
The US durable goods orders and the FOMC are the next major events which might shake the pair up a bit. Durable goods have been sluggish. The FOMC statement will be something to consider. Does the Fed cave in to the lower inflation side, or are they full steam ahead with the a June-ish tightening.
USDJPY on the daily i showing some bullish and bearish as well.
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