WTI up over a buck as windy season kicks off in the US via ForexLive

We're into hurricane season in the States and that's one thing that always adds a risk premium to oil prices.

Tropical storm Edouard has been upgraded to a category 3 hurricane but it's well off the east coast and its projected path is heading away from the US.

South Western Mexico is keeping an eye on tropical storm Polo, while further North tropical storm Odile is heading into coastal California.

WTI is into old support turned resistance in the Nov futures at 93.00 and the weather watchers probably won't be running the price up too far unless we get a really big storm streaking across the gulf, and we all hope that doesn't happen first and foremost.

WTI daily chart 16 09 2014

The next strong level to watch is up at 95.85/90 and just ahead of the 38.2 fib of the Jun/Sep hi/lo at 96.37.

The over supply and lack of demand worries haven't dissipated overnight so using the weather to scale into any spikes up is the way to play it. Once again it's one of those trades I look for where a one off event throws the price out of its trend temporarily.

Hopefully no islands will be in the way of Edouard and I'm hoping that it doesn't all get sucked into the gulf stream and dumped on us as crappy weather in 4 or 5 days time.

Hurricane Edouard 16 09 2014

posted via ForexLive