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Sales of existing homes unexpectedly fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate last month, while Johnson & Johnson’s 2013 profit targets missed analysts estimates to the downside. Both of these factors are likely suspects in causing some light selling taking place in the US equity markets today. The MAR13 emini SP futures, are hovering around unchanged levels today, trading at 1479.25. There was some strong selling down to the 1476 level, but buyers immediately took control, bringing the market back to 1479. According to more than 11,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, profits in the benchmark gauge are forecast to exceed $1 trillion this year, or 31 percent more than when the gauge peaked. As we have stated, we believe the SP is indeed on track to hit 1500 in Q1.
The US bond market is actually having a nice rally this morning. This is interesting as the stock market isn’t quite going down today. However, we believe this is likely due to the BOJ’s stated policy of open-ended asset and bond purchases in their endeavor to stimulate the economy. The US jobs report issued the first week of February will be very interesting. If the # is much higher than the market expects, we believe this will have a very strong impact on both the stock and bond futures markets. On the BOJ note, the Nikkei has really tanked today, trading down 400 points, or 3.64%. This is a move that could embody the classic trading adage: “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
Some soft commodities are really moving this morning, such as coffee and cocoa. Coffee is down a whopping 4.38%, while cocoa is down 3.28%.
We focus more on RBOB gasoline futures today. RBOB had a massive rally starting in June 2012, then starting to experience a range trade between approximately $2.85 and $2.60 since hitting a recent high in September. Just today, we notice that RBOB has broken above a key multi-month resistance line, and is trading up $.026 today. Our next upside target for this market is the $2.95 level. The recent trend looks strong to us, and we would not be surprised to see RBOB gasoline futures (MAR 13), head to $2.87 and then possibly $2.95.
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