A Powerful Beast Must Not Be Underestimated

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The S&P 500 Composite rose 6.87 points or 0.61% on Friday, September 23, 2011.

Volume on the NYSE fell 31%, which did not confirm an upturn in the price trend.

S&P 500 and other price indexes are near the lower end their 7-week trading ranges.

Fundamentally, whether or not these trading ranges hold again or break down may depend on the next overnight news headline about the debt crisis in Europe, since that crisis appears to be a key driver of the short-term Minor Ripple price swings.

Technically, the breakdown from the "Bear Flag" on Thursday, which was confirmed by very high trading volume, implies a break below the trading range, that is, below the 1101.54 intraday low set on 8/9/11 for the S&P 500.

Seasonal tendencies are unfavorable for September and into October.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.
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There is a strategy that gained over the past 5 months, while most other strategies lost --
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The Colby Global Markets Report


Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

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The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011.

The S&P 500 Composite rose 6.87 points or 0.61% on Friday, September 23, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1101.54, low of 8/9/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF price rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major uptrend.

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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF price rose above the highs of the previous 7 months on 9/22/11, reconfirming a major price uptrend. After the collapse of gold and the Swiss Franc, the U.S. dollar is the last refuge for risk-averse investors. Support 22.05, 21.75, 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/23/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF price broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge pattern on 9/19/11, thereby signaling renewed bearish momentum. USO fell below the lows of the previous 6-weeks on 9/23/11, reconfirming a short-term minor downtrend, and USO fell below the lows of the previous 2 years on 8/9/11, confirming a long-term major downtrend. Support 33.55, 33.25, 32.60, 31.45, 30.31, 26.28, 22.74. Resistance 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF price broke down below 8-week lows and its 50-day SMA on 9/23/11, suggesting a downtrend, for the short term at least. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support: 156.11, 154.10, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 170.32, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio whipsawed back below its falling 50-day SMA on 9/22/11 and remains below its falling 200-day SMA. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Absolute price of GDX is neutral; it has not been as bullish as GLD. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/23/11, suggesting a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 26.03 and 24.44. Resistance: 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 10 months on 9/23/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 9/23/11, reconfirming a major price downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook, while strength in Copper suggests confidence.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

2.41% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.25% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.72% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
5.32% , VFC , VF
0.89% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.93% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
5.30% , NKE , NIKE STK B
0.69% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
4.88% , UIS , UNISYS
1.31% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
1.14% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
4.94% , CLX , CLOROX
1.27% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
0.66% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.53% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
8.62% , HSP , HOSPIRA
1.80% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.89% , SWH , Software H, SWH
4.13% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
4.13% , WPO , Washington Post
3.47% , KSS , KOHLS
1.34% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
0.78% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
0.31% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.82% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.12% , PKI , PERKINELMER
3.77% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.36% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.59% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
1.77% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.18% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.28% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.92% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-14.15% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-5.60% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-5.47% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-7.26% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.61% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.66% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-6.06% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-3.65% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.57% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-1.34% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-1.23% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.56% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.32% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.58% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.51% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-2.11% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-0.51% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.06% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-0.45% , VIA , VIACOM INC.
-0.41% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.00% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.75% , HAR , Harman International
-0.16% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.22% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.46% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.06% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.11% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.05% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

4.89% Indonesia MV, IDX
3.22% Mexico Index, EWW
2.86% Spain Index, EWP
2.80% European VIPERs, VGK
2.66% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.62% Singapore Index, EWS
2.43% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
2.35% China 25 iS, FXI
2.34% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.32% India PS, PIN
2.31% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.30% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.19% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.19% South Korea Index, EWY
2.04% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.81% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.77% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.70% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.69% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.62% Italy Index, EWI
1.54% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.51% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.36% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.36% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.34% Water Resources, PHO
1.31% Germany Index, EWG
1.27% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.27% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.24% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.24% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.18% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.17% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.17% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.16% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.15% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.14% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.14% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.14% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.14% EAFE Index, EFA
1.13% Belgium Index, EWK
1.13% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.12% Dividend International, PID
1.11% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.06% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.06% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.06% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.05% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.04% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.01% Networking, IGN
1.00% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.99% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.97% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.97% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.93% France Index, EWQ
0.92% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.91% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.90% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.83% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.82% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.81% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.78% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.74% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.74% South Africa Index, EZA
0.73% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.72% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.70% Australia Index, EWA
0.70% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.67% Global 100, IOO
0.64% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.63% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.61% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.60% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.57% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.49% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.49% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.47% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.44% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.42% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.41% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.35% DIAMONDS , DIA
0.32% Japan Index, EWJ
0.28% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.28% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.27% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.27% Russia MV, RSX
0.25% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.24% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.20% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.18% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.17% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.17% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.15% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.12% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.11% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.11% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.05% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.02% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.06% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.11% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.13% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.16% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.17% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.19% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.20% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.21% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.27% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.27% Austria Index, EWO
-0.38% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.41% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.51% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.58% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.58% Energy Global, IXC
-0.62% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.82% Canada Index, EWC
-0.83% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.86% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.03% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.08% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.49% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.61% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.71% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.78% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.86% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-5.47% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-7.26% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-14.15% Silver Trust iS, SLV

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