Advance Retail Sales Signal Consumer Spending Muddling Along

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, over 5,000 questionnaires are sent to these firms, which represent about 65% of the total national sales estimates. The change is measured against the pervious month using the same units measured month-over-month. Advance retail sales could be seen as an important indicator because it hints at the sentiment of consumer spending. Consumer spending is highly correlated to the general health of the economy, as consumers account for two-thirds of US GDP. According to the

, advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $408.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent from the previous month, in-line with analyst estimates of 0.1 percent, and 6.4 percent above April 2011. Total sales for the February through April 2012 period were up 6.6 percent from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2012 percent change was revised from 0.8 percent to 0.7 percent. Retail trade sales were up 0.1 percent from March 2012 and 6.1 percent above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 11.0 percent from April 2011 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 10.3 percent from last year.