Will the Fed Destroy Your Portfolio Today?

At 2:15pm, the Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement from their meeting today. If you would like to be alerted to the contents of the Fed's meeting as they come out in real-time, signup for a free trial of Benzinga Pro's premium news service.

Expectations are low, with most observers anticipating little activity by the Federal Reserve.

According to a survey of economists, nearly half anticipate that the Fed may rule out the option of a QE3 altogether.

A third QE—or quantitative easing—may involve the purchase of bonds or other debt instruments in an effort to boost the economy.

The fed undertook two previous rounds of quantitative easing following the financial crisis in 2008. They have also moved to shift the debt curve (what has been deemed operation twist) and have pledged to maintain interest rates near 0% through 2013.

Recent economic data has appeared to show signs of a modest recovery in the US. The unemployment rate dropped below 9% last month, while other economic indicators like consumer confidence have often exceeded analysts' expectations.

Most critics' fear of additional quantitative easing has had to do with inflation. Following QE2's implementation last November, the cost of commodities across the board largely spiked.

Most notably, precious metals and agricultural goods saw the largest increases, as the price of silver and coffee nearly doubled.

Yet, the Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that the resulting increase in the cost of commodities was a temporary phenomenon, caused primarily by supply and demand imbalances coming from the demand of growing, emerging market economies.

While the price of commodities have to some extent pulled back, they remain elevated, and the Fed may face internal opposition to any more easing.

Thus far this year, the Fed has had three FOMC decisions colored by dissent. Twice the Fed had three dissenters on account of over aggressiveness; once by a dissenter who thought the Fed was not aggressive enough.

Events in Europe may give the Fed pause—a financial crisis in the Eurozone could spillover to the US, inflicting massive collateral damage. For that reason, the Fed may wish to prepare itself to act at some point in the future. However, given the modestly positive trends in the US economy, the Fed's more hawkish members may make it difficult for the Fed to act in an aggressive manner.

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
The Fed could surprise investors by unveiling a program of aggressive action this afternoon. In fact, it could be an ideal situation, as it would hit the market when it was least expected.

• If the Fed acts, the precious metals may be a no-brainer. Gold and silver have seen some of their best gains on days when the Fed has unveiled new plans. Traders can play the metals through options, or they could purchase an ETF such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD).

• Buy US Treasuries. Yields are near record lows, but could still decline if the Fed enters the market once again.

• Short the US dollar, or buy a stronger currency against the dollar like the Australian or Canadian dollars. Traders may anticipate inflation and a weaker dollar on account of Fed action, and shorting the dollar through an ETF or with a simple forex swap may prove profitable.

Bearish:
The Fed's inaction may already priced in, and may have little affect on the market overall. Yet, traders can still make shifts to their portfolio.

• Short the market. While most may be anticipating inaction, some could be expecting the Fed to act, and the market might trade slightly lower after the announcement. Although leveraged ETFs carry a tremendous amount of risk, playing a leveraged short ETF like ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (NYSE: SDS) could be a way for traders to scalp a few percentage points off a relatively minor shift.

• Sell industrial commodities like crude oil. If the Fed does not act, oil could sell off as pressure driving it higher could recede.

Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.