A New Month 9/1/10

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Outside markets likely helped Crude oil trade higher today because the inventory report certainly wasn’t bullish. We maintain that if $71.50 can hold on a closing basis on the October contract that a bottom is in the making. Our upside target into next week is $77.25-$78.50. For the last four sessions natural gas has been back and forth in a 20 cent trading range. Like a coiled spring the longer this lasts the larger breakout we project. As most followers know we’re advising lightly scaling into November longs and to purchase November and December call spreads expecting that move to be up. Don’t call it a correction; the Dow is higher by 240 points and the S&P by 30 points as of this post. On a further appreciation of 3% bearish plays in the S&P will be back on our radar for clients. Sugar traded to a seven month high gaining nearly 4% today. Clients March options are down but we feel prices are due for a major set back. We’ve yet to commit in futures for clients…stay tuned. Treasuries appear to be putting in a major top; both 30-year bonds and 10-year notes. As for traders start tracking the December contract as opposed to September. It will take a close below the 20 day MA for confirmation; in 30-year bonds 131’22 and 10-year notes at 124’22. Gold is within 2% of record highs and overbought so in my opinion we could get a correction at any moment. Risk to reward I do not like it. We advised clients to cut their long silver position in half or trail stops on futures and to move to the sidelines. Corn made a fresh 2010 high today. We suggest bullish exposure with either stop loss protection or option protection being prices have gained 30% in the last two months. We will be looking for long entries with clients in December CBOT and KCBOT wheat as long as $6.75 and $6.80 continue to support. The US dollar appears to be rolling over; if looking for an opportunity we would suggest long the Loonie.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth. Benzinga Recommends that you take a look at the ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index Total Return ETN GRU. The GRU is an ETF that tracks soybeans, soy meal, wheat and corn. The ELEMENTS MLCX Grains Index Total Return ETN was up 1.21% in today's session.Beat the market consistently by receiving real-time trade alerts from the ETF Professor!
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