BGC Chart Chatter SP 500 Futures First Look…Nov 8, 2011

SP 500 futures picking up where left off in from US close, after price dip to an overnight low of 1248.80 following a soft Asian equity session. Sentiment shift that EU will be able to gain control their current situation puts current Greek / Italian political uncertainties on the back burner. IAEA report on Iran's nuke program underpins crude oil, provides tailwinds to the energy sector as can be seen by sector leaders in UK (Oil Equipment Services/ Personal Goods / Industrial Engineering /  Tech Hardware and Equip / Aerospace and Defense / Mining / Oil Gas Producers

Yesterday's closing buy imbalance, though modest, underscored what had been an afternoon driven with buy programs with mutual fund Monday event perhaps given a psychological boost from headlines regarding Buffet's buying binge.

Yesterday's closing imbalance…….604.93 M / -229.13 M ——————————————————————————–
Oil / Gas           : $   27.37 M
Basic Materials     : $   15.33 M
Industrials         : $   38.49 M
Consumer Goods      : $   84.24 M
Healthcare          : $   32.03 M
Consumer Services   : $   47.34 M
Telecommunications  : $   -1.19 M
Utilities           : $   22.76 M
Financials          : $  105.44 M
Technology          : $    3.98 M

Short term technicals for SP 500 futures are seeing a stair step up pattern from yesterday's VST oversold signal issued sub 1235.00  with OB > 1255, 1262.50 into yesterday's early globex session surge. The next area of VST OB is targeted > 1267.75.

Longer term daily chart resistance is next concentrated from 1271-1273 (for fresh acceleration)………initial support will be found at previous resistance at 1257.00. Key support for health of the October up leg is 1232 from 1229.

Overall a retest of October high pattern is in play.

Nasdaq 100 futures leading as the a budding head and shoulders pattern is bending

DAX futures and Eurostoxx 50 futures are playing catch up….testing their first lines of momentum repair at 6080 / 2343 respectively.

Economics Calendar – Daily View

·         Tuesday, November 8^th: US (JOLTs Job Openings) Other (China CPI & PPI, Japan Trade Balance)

·         Wednesday, November 9^th : US (Wholesale Inventories); Other (China IP & Retail Sales)

·         Thursday, November 10^th : US (Import Price Index, Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Monthly Budget Statement); EuroZone (ECB Nov. Monthly Report, UK BoE Rate Decision, German CPI);Other (China Trade Balance, Japan Consumer Confidence)

·         Friday, November 11^th: US (U. of Mich Confidence); EuroZone (UK PPI);Other (China New Yuan Loans)

Corporate Events Calendar

·         Tues Nov 8: earnings before the open (Cap Gemini, FOSL, InterContinental Hotels, Intesa Sanpaolo, Lloyds Banking Group, Prudential/PUK, ROK, SMG, SocGen, SSP, VOD); earnings after the close (ATVI, DOX, RBCN, ROVI, SINA, STEC); sales (MCD); analyst meetings (SWI)

·         Wed Nov 9: earnings before the open (Anheuser, ARX, ASH, CSC, DF, GGP, GM, HSBC, M, RL, WEN); earnings after the close (CSCO, GMCR); analyst meetings (AA, ADBE, BDX, CY, ERIC, HAS, LOGI)

·         Thurs Nov 10: earnings before the open (Agricole, Deutsche Telecom, Experian, FXCM, MPEL, Siemens, Telecom Italia, VIA); earnings after the close (BRKS, DIS, MCP, NVDA, RENN, TUP); analyst meetings (AVID, BX, MCD, MON, MRK)

·         Fri Nov 11: earnings before the open (Allianz, DHI, Rolls Royce, Telefonica); sales (GWW)

Corporate Events Calendar – Week of Mon Nov 14

·         Mon Nov 14: earnings before the open (JCP, SolarWorld, Unicredit, URBN); analyst meeting (BK, RAI)

·         Tues Nov 15: earnings before the open (BZH, COV, HD, SKS, SPLS, TJX, WMT); earnings after the close (DELL); analyst meetings (ADVS, ASH, LNC, NBL) 

·         Wed Nov 16: earnings before the open (Infineon, TGT, TYC); analyst meetings (AMP, Diageo, OMX, QCOM)

·         Thurs Nov 17: earnings before the open (GME, GPS, SABMiller); earnings after the close (BCSI, CRM, INTU, MRVL); analyst meetings (ROK, UBS) 

Macro catalysts to watch:

·         Italy votes - there is a budget vote scheduled for Tues (looks like it could happen at 9:30amET) 

·         Italian margins – LCH Clearnet could wind up taking margin action for BTPs if their spread vs. a benchmark of Europe's AAAs hits >450bp (the spread is already ahead of that vs. bunds).  Higher margins could lead to an acceleration of selling.

·         Eurozone fin min meeting – Mon + Tues.  Doesn't seem like anything major will be announced although the "troika" is expected to confirm Greece's next aid tranche.

·         Treasury auctions – 3s Tues, 10s Wed, and 30s Thurs.  Note Treasuries are closed Fri for Veterans Day.

·         China – the co's CPI hits Tues night (11/8).  The St is looking for a pretty big deceleration (to +5.4% from the +6.1% in Sept).    

·         Oct-end Earnings – the Oct-end earnings season kicks off w/a bunch of retailers and CSCO (CSCO reports after the close Wed night 11/9).  CSCO is usually a pretty big data point for tech (esp. Chambers' comments on the broader outlook for tech end market/enterprise demand).  There are a few more big US Sept-end companies (GM reports Wed morning 11/9). 

·         Iran – the IAEA will apparently publish a report in the coming week that will contain evidence of Iran operating a secret nuclear weapons program (http://tgr.ph/vrQK9p).  This report could ratchet up int'l pressure on the country.

·         More European meetings? – press reports suggest Eurozone officials are accelerating talks on leveraging the EFSF and would like to have a formal structure in place by the end of Nov (vs. the end of Dec).  Another fin min meeting has been scheduled for Nov 17.  Meanwhile, further talks are going to take place on having the IMF take a greater role in the Eurozone debt crisis (there may be another G20 Leaders Summit held in 2011 although the IMF said the next gathering won't be until Feb).  The IMF remains one of the big wildcards left in the Italian crisis (specifically, a EU50B PCL to Italy may help calm market tensions, at least temporarily).

______________________________________________________________

Roger Volz

Director

BGC FINANCIAL L.P.

Cash Equities

646-346-7412

1-866-323-1585

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