SPX 500 - The Road Not Taken

The SPX 500 Index is at the "junction" where we will see an reenactment of that scenario " The Road Not Taken ". Will it be RIP or RIP ? The next session will show us the way.

The Index traded between 1094.66 and 1086.81 with a close at 1091.38 . The drop to 1086.81 indicated, to me, that this correction could be more than a "deep" correction of the latest RIP 1084.90 - 1113.69 . The key will be whether the green ascending Trend Line [ ATRL ] at approximately 1090± holds, as it has in the past, then we could see a continued re bound to the 1115± level . That is the road named optimistic.

Now we come to that other "road" that if taken will see the " bears " rejoicing for as long as the correction lasts. If this is the scenario then it may be short lived but inflict much pain to the bulls. Now should 1090± [ green ATRL ] fail the correction will be for the RIP 1029-38 to 1113.69. The normal retracement levels will be at 1081.48 and 1061.59 . Should those levels fail the first the ATRL [ yellow ] at approximately 1057± will be tested . That value is supported by Fibonacci values that have occurred between 1055 and 1057. Lastly the lower boundary [ magenta ATRL ] of the ascending meandering channel [ AMC ] is the last support for a "normal" retracement. The meandering is the sinuous path taken by the Index since September and one can see that it will be a natural event for the boundary to be tested. The value of the magenta ATRL is approximately 1042± which fits with a sub Fibonacci level at 1041. Looking at the chart I can see that the magenta ATRL might be drawn a bit on the high side and that the value should be 1037± . Again this is supported by a sub Fibonacci at 1036.98 . The red ATRL sits at a RIP retracement level for the 869.32 - 1113.69 . That test is probably not in the cards for this correction. That is the potential scenario for the road named reality.

In the last session the Index rebounded just above a sub-support level at 1086.18 so that will be the early indication level for the downside scenario. To the upside, should that scenario be in play, the 'zone" 1094 - 1096 if cleared will set the stage for a RIP to 1100+.

The calculated Resistance and Support values are as follows:

RESISTANCE

• WR4- 1177.93
• WR3- 1151.05
• MR2- 1133.91
• WR2- 1124.17
• DR4- 1114.50
• WR1- 1107.78
• DR3- 1106.65
• DR2- 1098.80
• DR1- 1095.09
• MR1- 1085.05

SUPPORT

• DS1- 1087.24
• DS2- 1083.10
• WS1- 1080.90
• DS3- 1075.25
• WS2-1070.41
• DS4- 1067.40
• WS3- 1043.53
• WS4-1016.65
• MS1- 1003.64

DEFINITIONS

DR-WR-MR

Daily Resistance- Weekly Resistance- Monthly Resistance Levels

DS-WS-MS

Daily Support- Weekly Support- Monthly Support Levels