Economic Calendar - 26 July 2010
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 26th of July 2010. This week the main event is Q2 GDP for the US, there's also the monthly GDP figure from Canada. The US also has the S&P Case-Shiller house price index, and consumer confidence. Elsewhere there's the RBNZ in New Zealand, which is expected to hike rates again. There's also a lot of key data out of Japan such as the jobless rate, retail sales, and industrial production; the Euro Zone also releases CPI and unemployment data.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||1:30||AUD||Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q)||1.5%||-0.1%|
|MON||12:30||USD||Chicago Fed National Activity Index (JUN)||0.21|
|MON||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)||6.7%||-32.7%|
|MON||14:00||USD||New Home Sales (JUN)||320K||300K|
|TUE||8:00||EUR||Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN)||-0.1%||-0.2%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY)||3.75%||3.81%|
|TUE||13:00||USD||S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY)||144.56|
|TUE||14:00||USD||Consumer Confidence (JUL)||51.8||52.9|
|WED||EUR||German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P)||1.2%||0.9%|
|WED||1:30||AUD||Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q)||1.0%||0.9%|
|WED||1:30||AUD||Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q)||3.4%||2.9%|
|WED||3:00||NZD||NBNZ Business Confidence (JUL)||40.2|
|WED||3:00||NZD||NBNZ Activity Outlook (JUL)||38.5|
|WED||8:00||EUR||ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey|
|WED||12:30||USD||Durable Goods Orders (JUN)||0.8%||-1.1%|
|WED||12:30||USD||Durables Ex Transportation (JUN)||0.5%||0.9%|
|WED||18:00||USD||Fed Publishes Beige Book Economic Report|
|WED||21:00||NZD||Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision||3.00%||2.75%|
|WED||22:45||NZD||Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)||368M||814M|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN)||0.4%||-2.0%|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN)||3.2%||2.8%|
|THU||1:00||AUD||HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN)||-6.4%|
|THU||7:55||EUR||German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)||7.6%||7.7%|
|THU||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL)||99.0||98.7|
|THU||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL)||0.39||0.37|
|THU||23:01||GBP||GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL)||-21||-19|
|THU||23:30||JPY||Jobless Rate (JUN)||5.2%||5.2%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)||-0.8%||-0.7%|
|THU||23:30||JPY||National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)||-0.7%||-0.9%|
|THU||23:50||JPY||Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P)||18.9%||20.4%|
|FRI||5:00||JPY||Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)||1.8%||-4.6%|
|FRI||5:00||JPY||Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)||0.759M||0.737M|
|FRI||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL)||1.8%||1.4%|
|FRI||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN)||10.0%||10.0%|
|FRI||12:30||CAD||Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (MAY)||0.1%||0.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A)||2.5%||2.7%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Personal Consumption (2Q A)||2.3%||3.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Employment Cost Index (2Q)||0.5%||0.6%|
|FRI||13:45||USD||Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUL)||56.0||59.1|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F)||67.5||66.5|
|FRI||20:15||USD||Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (APR) (JUL)||-1|
Starting with the main event, the US economy is expected to show an annualised growth rate of 2.5% in the second quarter of 2010, which will be slightly lower than the previous 2.7%. As I've often pointed out, it's likely that the first half of 2010 will be as good as it gets for this year, with either slower or downright double-dip material showing up in the second half.
On the inflation front, we've got several countries reporting CPI figures; first up is Australia, which is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 3.4% for the second quarter (up from 2.9% in Q1). Japan is expected to show further deflation with -0.7% year on year (vs -0.9% in May). The EU is also expected to show a slight pick up, to 1.8% from 1.4%.
There's also several confidence indicator updates, there's the US with the conference board consumer confidence index; expected to slip further to 51.8 from 52.9, and at the end of the week there's also the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index which is expected to rise slightly to 67.5 from 66.5. There's also National Bank of New Zealand business confidence, EU economic confidence, and China PMI.
It's also generally a heavy data week for Japan and the US. The US has the Fed's Beige Book economic report out, and the updates on the US housing market continue with S&P Case Shiller home price index (along with new home sales the day before), durable goods orders, and personal consumption stats, so it will provide a good insight into where the US is tracking.
In Japan there's retail sales, the jobless rate, CPI, industrial production, and housing starts - so it will also be good to get an update on where the world's 3rd or 2nd (depending how you measure) largest economy.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
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