Another Secretariat and 1973 Market in the Making?

For investor’s sake, let’s hope not.  In 1973, when Secetariat accomplished his unprecedented feat of winning a Triple Crown, the market was down 14.7%.  With the market up roughly 7% (and shrinking) year to date, that would be quite a reversal of fortune.  But for fans of the horse racing industry (including myself) it would be a welcome victory which would help to renew interest in the fading sport.

With I’ll Have Another’s impressive come from behind victory in the Kentucky Derby, he has emerged as a viable candidate to the Triple Crown as the sport has seen in years.  After Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) there has been quite a drought.  Since that time, 11 horses have won the first two legs of the jewel only to be thwarted in the final grueling Belmont Stakes of 1 1/2 miles (Derby-1 1/8 miles and Preakness-1 1/6 miles).  Most recently, Big Brown (2008) wilted in the stretch in 97 degree heat after a rocky start, and finished dead last.

In my opinion the lack of a recent Triple Crown win since 1978 and many failed attempts can be attributed  to one factor, inbreeding.  In fact, most of today’s modern thoroughbreds can trace their pedigrees to a handful of English stallions and larger crop of mares mainly imported from England during the 17th and 18th century.  As a result of performing with maximum effort in each and every race, health problems are a major concern for thoroughbred owners.  Therefore, the likelihood of winning the treacherous Belmont Stakes is strongly influenced by the toll taken on the winner in the first two races.   

With that being said, I’ll Have Another steered his way off a gigantic field in the Kentucky Derby and meandered his way clear at the top of the stretch with little trouble.  He was able to run down Bodemeister, who had set a torrid pace earlier in the race.

So if it is not going to be a two-horse race again (Dullahan-3rdin the Derby is not entered) who can end the Triple Crown hype before it really gains momentum?   Let’s handicap some of the others from the Derby as well as a recent race winner at Pimlico Race Course (who in the past has pulled some upsets).

Creative Cause, who finished 5thin the Derby deserves some consideration.  However, I’ll Have Another has defeated this horse soundly in his last two starts and will not allow Creative Cause or Bodemeister to get too far ahead in this abbreviated race. 

Bodemeister, who may go off as the favorite (I certainly hope so), would have won the Derby if he had not set such a blistering pace out of the gate.  Expect his jockey to do the same in Preakness to fend off any late charges by I’ll Have Another.  However, stamina is going to be a huge factor for Bodemeister and Creative Cause to overcome, since this will be their third race since March 10th  (while their rival has one less start under his saddle in the same time period). 

Pretension, who had been first or second in each of his first five starts, could be the spoiler.  As a result of racing off the pace in his last two races, he finished up the track in both starts.  However, on May 5that Pimilico Race Course, he returned to the winners  circle.   Pretension positioned himself just behind the leader and made his move at the top of the stretch to secure the victory.  His familiarity with the track and front running style would be a very attractive combination with I’ll Have Another, paying the mother load if he ends up on top.

In closing, my money will be on I’ll Have Another (more so if he is not the favorite) along with some perfectas with the aforementioned candidates.  After he rewarded me so handsomely with his Derby victory, I do not want to “look a gift horse in the mouth”.  Perhaps long-term investors should view the incredible rally since the 2009 lows the same way, whether or not a Triple Crown win comes to fruition.

Posted In: TopicsMarketsGeneralKentucky DerbyTriple Crown
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