2012: The Big Suck (2011 Review, 2012 Outlook)

As is my usual practice it's that time of year when I score my "best guesses" from the previous year, and look forward with my next set. If you're not inclined to bother with long-winded explanations the title is probably sufficient. But for everyone else, let's look at the 2011 list and see how I did.

We're not going to get away with spending another $450 billion in deficits on top of the $1.6 trillion we blew last year. $2 trillion in deficits? Not a prayer.

Well that "more or less" worked out. I don't have the final numbers yet and won't for a bit as I'm writing this before the end of the year, but we most-certainly did not run a $2 trillion deficit. As of 12/21 it's right near $1.1 trillion gross ($1.3ish involving cash adjustments.) This is a bad number though as the most-recent data isn't in and neither are the cash adjustments that Treasury usually makes. Nonetheless there's no way we're going to see another trillion "magically appear", so that's a point.

Europe will not get their debt situation under control. I give us a 50/50 chance that Ireland repudiates it's "deal" immediately following their elections, and the cancer there will spread. I won't call a breakup of the Euro - yet - but the possibility exists that one or more nations will leave the common currency next year. I only see the odds as something around 50% though, so it doesn't go on the "prediction" board for this year. Nothing but net on this one.

The Dollar remains the hooker with crabs while many other currencies have AIDS. The wildcard is the Pound. Britain may actually have their act under reasonable control. We'll see. For the Euro, no such luck. I expect a wide trading range with lots of both euphoria and tears, perhaps as much as 40% or more. That means we'll get plenty of whipsaws in the /DX as well. Nonetheless, the doomers call of a dollar collapse and gold at $3,000+/oz will be wrong.

Nothing but net again.

Oil is going to.......

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