Potential Reversals 3/19/10

We may have hit a pivotal turning point in a number of markets today. We will need to see confirmation of reversals early next week…stay tuned. Crude will finish the last trading day of the week 2% lower but will manage to hold onto the $80 level. April will go off the board next week and May will become the front month. We continue to expect oil to find resistance around $82 and support around $77. We are still suggesting clients to position themselves to take advantage of a probe to the mid 70’s in coming weeks.

After yesterdays bloodbath natural gas was able to hold onto to gains today picking up just under 2%. We have a lot of work to achieve the $5 target but as we’ve explained to clients if we see a quick jump expect short covering to get prices back in line. It has been an expensive lesson catching this knife with the only saving grace is that we’ve scaled into natty with a small position. Once bitten twice shy…if you’re a glutton for punishment probe shorts in the ES and SP with stops at 1167 in June. Nothing notable in softs.

Treasuries seem to be running into resistance but expect the inverse relationship with indices to live on. That being said on a sell off in stocks expect higher ground in the debt markets.

Muted action in grains to end the week; corn and soybeans remained above the 20 day moving average while wheat fell short closing just below the 20 day MA. We are suggesting long exposure in corn from these levels and would advise clients to be a buyer of November soybeans on a a trade closer to $8.80.8.90/bushell.

We will digest the Cattle on Feed report that came out today and have a fresh perspective on cattle early next week. While we feel prices are too high we’ve felt this way for the last $4.

The action in gold and silver today was what we’ve been looking for and we expect more downside follow through next week. We see April gold challenging $1075 and possibly $1045 and May silver a trade back below $16/ounce.

The US dollar is back close to 81.00 gaining 0.65% today to end the week. This had all other crosses on their heels with the Cable getting hit the hardest.

If we see more downside in metals and energies as we expect we should start to see the Loonie perform as we had originally forecast; looking for a move back to .9500 in the weeks to come.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

MB Wealth Corp. is not responsible and does not endorse anything outside of the content of this article authored by Matthew Bradbard; President of MB Wealth.

Benzinga Recommends that you take a look at the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO). The USO is the ETF that tracks crude oil. The United States Oil Fund is down 1.85% today.