Market Overview

A Tool to Monitor Midday Weather Model Run Frame by Frame

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Want to monitor weather changes like professional traders do?

Check out http://www.12zmodelruns.com.  All professional natural gas and electricity traders monitor midday weather changes. During daily model run, between 11AM and 1PM, model run drastically moves markets.

Site can be used to explain realtime market moves, could help with energy portfolio allocation or additional data point for futures trading.

Below is the detailed description of the site:

The website is a real-time visualization tool for the surface temperature output from the Global Forecast System weather models.
Models run 384 hours (15 days) out, 4 times a day, in 3 to 12 hour increments. The most closely  watched run by NatGas and Power traders  is "12z run"  which starts around noon for Operational and closer to 1pm for Ensemble model (as indicated on the front page)
Each "dot" on the map is colored based on the difference from the previous forecast of the same model. (the midnight run)

On the Map:
Blue color indicates that the new forecast is cooler compared to the previous one in that location --> less cooling demand for summer season --> bearish for signal NatGas futures.

Red color indicates that the new forecast is hotter compared to the previous one in that location --> more cooling demand for summer season--> bullish for signal NatGas futures.

The darker the color the the larger the difference from the previous forecast.
"Map Temperature Change , F" legend table below the map gives the number ranges for different colors

In addition to the Map, we present a US population weighted temperature change number in a table next to the map.
Every point on the map is weighted by the population in that specific location, and aggregated into a PWDI (Population Weighted Delta Index) for each frame/forecast hour of the model.

We are in the process of adding maps to show the deviations from the 30yr historical means, and other forecast parameters (precipitation, 850mb temps, etc)
And most important detail: the lag in update time of the map is much smaller than in the products offered by expensive traditional weather service vendors (wsi, earthsat etc.)

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: General

 

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