Federal Reserve https://www.benzinga.com/views/taxonomy/term/125743 en Trade Concerns Continue To Push Stock Market Lower https://www.benzinga.com/government/18/12/12824454/trade-concerns-continue-to-push-stock-market-lower <p>It may be a new week, but the same uncertainties that led to a 4% plunge culminating in Friday&rsquo;s 500-point decline haven&rsquo;t necessarily gone away. The market is still licking its wounds, and concerns about the next chapter in the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and possible slowing economic growth all could continue to weigh on sentiment as the year winds down.</p> <p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell more than 500 points Friday to erase its 2018 gains. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) ended the old week at 2633, exactly one point above the closing low on Nov. 23. While some traders could view the close as a positive sign from a technical perspective, it probably came as little consolation for bulls on a day when the index was down more than 2% and in a week that was the worst since March for the major indices.</p> <p>More bearish news came over the weekend when China reported November export data that fell short of expectations and could potentially raise concerns about demand from global importers. Exports to the European Union, South Korea and the U.S. from China all rose less than expected, with exports to the U.S. up 9.8% in November from a year ago but down from 13.2% in October. Import growth of 3% was the slowest in two years. Asian stocks were down early Monday.</p> <p>In Europe, concerns about a possible delay in the U.K. parliament&rsquo;s vote on Prime Minister Theresa May&rsquo;s Brexit plan are front and center this week. According to media reports, May&rsquo;s plan is under attack from all sides of the political spectrum, and if it fails, the U.K. might have to re-enter negotiations with the European Union. The pound fell Monday to 19-month lows vs. the dollar.</p> <p>Still, pre-market trading saw U.S. indices turn positive, maybe a sign that some investors think the market might have gotten oversold last week. We&rsquo;ll see if the early green numbers can possibly stay that way. Key technical support appears to be near the 2600 level for the SPX, which is down around the late October intraday low.</p> <h3>Tectonic Shift Underway as &ldquo;Buy the Dip&rdquo; No Longer Working</h3> <p>Last week&rsquo;s plunge and continued volatility could serve as reminders of the tectonic shift we&rsquo;re seeing in stock market and fixed income valuations, but even the bears might have gotten surprised by the extent of the Friday selloff.</p> <p>Meanwhile, for the bulls, buying the dip doesn&rsquo;t seem to have worked. Instead, many investors appear to be opting for &ldquo;risk-off&rdquo; vehicles like Treasury notes, utility stocks, and gold. Others might be holding on to their equity positions but not not adding to them, perhaps hoping to batten down the hatches as the headwinds keep blowing. Volume was relatively light on Friday, a possible sign of investors not wanting to be too active in this market. Consider keeping an eye on volume this week, especially with the holidays closing in.</p> <p>The difference between now and, say, a year ago, is back then investors could often rely on FAANGs or financials to come through and pull the market out of any skid. Today, it&rsquo;s hard to see what kind of spark could send things higher. The world isn&rsquo;t ending, but we might need to see some sector or other stick its head up and be the one to help lead us out of here. It&rsquo;s unlikely to be utilities, by the way, a traditionally &ldquo;defensive&rdquo; area and the one sector to gain Friday as investors embraced &ldquo;risk-off&rdquo; trades.</p> <h3>Positive Catalysts on Horizon?</h3> <p>For things to get brighter, it would likely take some sort of positive news from either U.S. trade negotiations with China, the ongoing Brexit saga, or some of the inflation data coming tomorrow and Wednesday. The November producer price index (PPI) early Tuesday and the consumer price index (CPI) early Wednesday could be the next pieces in the puzzle helping investors get a sense of where the Fed might ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/government/18/12/12824454/trade-concerns-continue-to-push-stock-market-lower alt=Trade Concerns Continue To Push Stock Market Lower>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL Government News Commodities Treasuries Global Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets General AAPL US0378331005 News Government Commodities Treasuries Global Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Mon, 10 Dec 2018 16:58:10 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12824454 at https://www.benzinga.com A Solid Rating For This Bond ETF https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/18/12/12804622/a-solid-rating-for-this-bond-etf <p>Among the most popular destinations this year in the world of fixed income exchange traded funds are those funds with low and ultra-low durations. The <strong>SPDR Portfolio Short Term Corporate Bond ETF</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/spsb#NYSE">SPSB</a>) is one of those funds.</p> <p>SPSB follows the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Corporate Bond Index, a benchmark of short-term, investment-grade domestic corporate bonds.</p> <h3>What Happened</h3> <p>The Federal Reserve raised interest rates three times this year and a fourth hike is widely expected to be delivered later this month. The Fed&#39;s rate hiking trajectory is prompting investors to embrace lower duration bonds and the related ETFs. SPSB has an option-adjusted duration of 1.85 years, <a href="https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-portfolio-short-term-corporate-bond-etf-SPSB">according to issuer data</a>.</p> <p>&ldquo;The fund&#39;s duration is slightly shorter than its category peers,&rdquo; said Morningstar <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/903547/this-cheap-shortterm-bond-fund-can-reduce-portfoli.html">in a recent research note</a>. &ldquo;As of November 2018, it measured ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/18/12/12804622/a-solid-rating-for-this-bond-etf alt=A Solid Rating For This Bond ETF>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> Analyst Color Long Ideas morningstar SPSB Bonds Specialty ETFs Top Stories Federal Reserve Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas ETFs SPSB Long Ideas Analyst Color Bonds Specialty ETFs Top Stories Federal Reserve Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas ETFs Benzinga Thu, 06 Dec 2018 13:45:16 +0000 ETF Professor 12804622 at https://www.benzinga.com Ahead Of Mid-Week Pause, Investors Fret Over Trade Pact Details https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/12/12795841/ahead-of-mid-week-pause-investors-fret-over-trade-pact-details <p class="Normal1">It looks like &ldquo;second thoughts&rdquo; time. Markets around the world fell overnight and pressure seemed to spill into the U.S. as investors considered the U.S. trade deal with China and started worrying about details.</p> <p class="Normal1">Before diving back into the deal and its possible market ramifications for Tuesday, a reminder that U.S. financial markets are closed tomorrow in honor of the late President George H.W. Bush. Trading could be thin today, with some market participants maybe feeling hesitant to take on big new positions with an off-day immediately ahead.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Of course, foreign markets will be open Wednesday, and might bear watching. Also, aside from equity and interest rate futures and options, the rest of the futures market will be open tomorrow, so that means metals, ags, currencies and crude have the U.S. stage to themselves for one day.</p> <p class="Normal1">Another consideration: Some of the events that had been scheduled for Wednesday have been pushed back. This includes earnings from lululemon (LULU), which the company now says will come out after the close Thursday. Also, some companies have said that dividends scheduled for Wednesday will now be paid Thursday.</p> <p class="Normal1">In addition, active traders might want to take note: Check your positions for anything&mdash;including SPX and SPY options&mdash;that may have had its expiration or delivery date changed or affected by Wednesday&rsquo;s market closure. If you have questions about anything expiring this Wednesday, consider calling the trade desk.</p> <p class="Normal1">Also, VIX expiration that had been scheduled for Wednesday has been rescheduled to Thursday.</p> <h3>Buy the Rumor; Sell the News?</h3> <p class="Normal1">Perhaps it&#39;s more like &quot;buy the headline; sell the fine print.&quot; Though at first blush, the progress made on trade in Buenos Aires appears to be good news&mdash;with promises to work together to resolve issues, an agreement by China to buy more U.S. goods, and no new impositions of tariffs for the next 90 days&mdash;perhaps the overnight pullback is a sign that investors may be considering the situation a little more closely.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">For example, let&rsquo;s look at some of the big items at play and follow them to a possible conclusion. Suppose China does buy more soybeans, energy products, autos, and maybe even licensing fees for use of U.S-owned intellectual property? Does that mean China will have less available to invest in U.S. Treasuries? In addition, more competition for U.S. raw materials and finished products could be inflationary. Losing some of the buying interest for Treasuries could also be inflationary, as the U.S. would need to pay a higher rate to entice sufficient buying interest.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">So, while there may be sector winners and losers depending on how any final agreement shapes up, the overall longer-term effect on the market remains hazy.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Another thing to remember is we&rsquo;re still lacking a lot of details on the agreement, and it appears the initial euphoria might be short-lived if there&rsquo;s no timely follow-up. A bit of apparent confusion in Washington about deal terms surfaced in media reports early Tuesday, adding to concerns.</p> <p class="Normal1">The U.S. has a 90-day timeline on negotiations, and a lot of the complex issues remain to be ironed out. It&rsquo;s hard to imagine 20 years or more of trade disputes being solved in three months.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">There&rsquo;s also fear that even with the trade truce, the bad blood between the U.S. and China might already be having an impact. The fact that the recent U.S. earnings season was so strong isn&rsquo;t necessarily an indication that the trade war isn&rsquo;t taking a toll. Some say the tariffs haven&rsquo;t affected earnings yet, but what they could be forgetting is that much of the stuff being sold was planned in inventory to be pushed out before the tariffs were in place. That might have shifted some demand forward, potentially affecting Q4 and Q1 company results, but we&rsquo;ll have to wait and see when Q4 earnings start to come out just over a ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/12/12795841/ahead-of-mid-week-pause-investors-fret-over-trade-pact-details alt=Ahead Of Mid-Week Pause, Investors Fret Over Trade Pact Details>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMZN BA CAT DE LLY MRK News TD Ameritrade TSLA yield curve Commodities Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 BA US0970231058 CAT US1491231015 DE US2441991054 LLY US5324571083 MRK US58933Y1055 TSLA US88160R1014 News Commodities Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Tue, 04 Dec 2018 15:24:38 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12795841 at https://www.benzinga.com Trade Truce: Market Appears To Get A Big Lift As Tariff Fears Retreat After G20 https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/12/12787243/trade-truce-market-appears-to-get-a-big-lift-as-tariff-fears-retreat-after-g20 <p class="Normal1">Over a steak dinner Saturday night, President Trump and Chinese President Xi agreed to take a coordinated step back from a looming trade war. That doesn&rsquo;t mean the crisis is solved, but it might lead to some relief for a market that&rsquo;s taken a lot of tariff-related punches lately.</p> <p class="Normal1">Stocks surged in a huge overnight rally in pre-market trading. How long this good cheer lasts is the question, as investors might be impatient waiting for more details. The weekend agreement is arguably a positive first step, and we&rsquo;ll have to see what the next steps are.</p> <p class="Normal1">Basically, it looks like Trump and Xi agreed to kick the ball down the road. Instead of tariffs rising to 25 percent from 10 percent on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods starting Jan. 1, as Trump had threatened, the clock is reset as the two countries agreed they&rsquo;d &ldquo;endeavor&rdquo; to wrap up talks in 90 days or so. Meanwhile, China promised to buy more U.S. products, and both sides agreed to negotiations on other topics like intellectual property that have helped tarnish their relationship over the last couple of decades. So the overhang of a possible trade war hasn&rsquo;t gone away, it&rsquo;s simply retreated. The Wall Street Journal called it a &ldquo;truce,&rdquo; and that&rsquo;s probably a good description.</p> <p class="Normal1">That&rsquo;s not to say the weekend news doesn&rsquo;t have a chance to be constructive for stocks in the near term, because having roughly 90 days to straighten things out instead of less than 30 certainly pulls the curtain back a bit. Still, a lot of questions remain because many of the issues are pretty complex, so investors might want to consider tariffs as a potential market factor in early 2019. That could be especially true for sectors like materials, industrials, and info tech that have so much exposure to the Chinese market.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Another thing to keep in mind is that U.S. financial markets will be closed Wednesday in honor of the late President George H.W. Bush, so there will be a mid-week pause.</p> <h3>Keeping Watch</h3> <p class="Normal1">As we&rsquo;ve seen over the last year, two stocks in particular have often acted like searchlights for investors trying to get a read on the trade situation. Consider watching <strong>Boeing Co. </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ba#NYSE">BA</a>) and <strong>Caterpillar Inc.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cat#NYSE">CAT</a>) today and in coming weeks for possible clues into how investors read the trade winds. <strong>Apple Inc. </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NYSE">AAPL</a>) might be another company to watch, partly because it&rsquo;s been beaten down so much over the last month (arguably due more to its own business issues than to trade), but also because its large manufacturing presence in China can make it look vulnerable to any crossfire between the two countries.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Agricultural companies like <strong>Deere &amp; Company</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/de#NYSE">DE</a>) and <strong>Archer Daniels Midland Company</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/adm#NYSE">ADM</a>) might be other names to consider watching today and in the weeks ahead, because one thing China agreed to do is buy more U.S. agricultural products. The U.S. ag sector has had a rough year thanks in part to China looking elsewhere for grain and meat products. Automobile stocks like <strong>General Motors Company</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gm#NYSE">GM</a>) and <strong>Ford Motor Comapny</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/f#NYSE">F</a>) also appear to be getting a lift early Monday on signs China could be importing more U.S. cars.</p> <p class="Normal1">Stocks surged in pre-market trading after the agreement got announced as investors signaled relief at having the tariff overhang pulled away for the moment. Volatility, which had been strong going into the weekend, fell sharply, with the VIX off 13 percent early Monday down below 17, from near 20 before the Xi/Trump meeting.</p> <h3>Additional Clues</h3> <p class="Normal1">Another way to monitor market reaction to the meeting could be the greenback. It ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/12/12787243/trade-truce-market-appears-to-get-a-big-lift-as-tariff-fears-retreat-after-g20 alt=Trade Truce: Market Appears To Get A Big Lift As Tariff Fears Retreat After G20>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL ADM BA CAT DE F G20 Summit GM News TD Ameritrade Commodities Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 ADM US0394831020 BA US0970231058 CAT US1491231015 DE US2441991054 F US3453708600 GM US37045V1008 News Commodities Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Mon, 03 Dec 2018 14:40:14 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12787243 at https://www.benzinga.com November Markets: Stocks Plunge On Oil, China-U.S. Tensions, Then Rebound https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12780241/november-markets-stocks-plunge-on-oil-china-u-s-tensions-then-rebound <p>U.S. stocks took a beating in November amid a variety of concerns including rising interest rates, slowing overseas economic growth, Brexit, and falling crude prices. Additionally, news around U.S.-China relations regarding tariffs continued to remain at the forefront this month, weighing on the market.</p> <p>But by late in the month, major indices that had given up most or all of their yearly gains powered up into positive territory as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks on rate hikes.</p> <p>At its November low point, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) hit correction territory, down more than 10 percent from its last closing high two months earlier. The Nasdaq (COMP) fell even more steeply than the S&amp;P 500. November&rsquo;s sell-off followed weakness in October, as investors seem to be repricing stocks on concern that the fundamentals might not support robust earnings growth in 2019.</p> <p>After Thanksgiving, with holiday shopping in full swing, things began to look a little rosier as anticipation apparently grew that more shoppers might open their wallets this spending season and on optimism on a breakthrough in U.S.-China tariff tensions. Then, stocks really perked up as Powell&rsquo;s comments gave investors hope for a pause in the rate hikes after December&rsquo;s near-certain interest rate increase. The S&amp;P 500 marked its biggest gain in eight months in the wake of the speech.</p> <p>Still, despite the late-month rally, most of November presented a generally bleak picture. Some of the worst-performing sectors over the last month have been energy&mdash;beaten down by a fast-falling crude oil market&mdash;along with info tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary, sectors that have been affected by the tensions between China and the U.S.</p> <h3>Black Friday Kicks Off Retail&rsquo;s Rush Days</h3> <p>The good news began late in the month as this year&rsquo;s holiday shopping season got off to a healthy start with Black Friday on Nov. 23. The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects sales to increase up to 4.8 percent, or up to $720.45 billion this year over last year, as consumers are riding high on a range of positive economic news, from a strong jobs scene to improving wages.</p> <p>In total, the NRF said the number of shoppers online and in stores declined from the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday compared to last year, but it says shoppers are not even half way done shopping. Of course, if this year&rsquo;s expected shopping boom translates into a windfall for retailers like <strong>Target Corporatio</strong>n (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tgt#NYSE">TGT</a>), <strong>Macy&rsquo;s Inc. </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/m#NYSE">M</a>) and<strong> Walmart Inc.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/wmt#NYSE">WMT</a>), online retailers like <strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and <strong>eBay Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ebay#NASDAQ">EBAY</a>) could also stand to reap the rewards.</p> <p>This month, consumer sentiment remained at &ldquo;favorable levels,&rdquo; although ticked down slightly throughout the month, according to data from ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12780241/november-markets-stocks-plunge-on-oil-china-u-s-tensions-then-rebound alt=November Markets: Stocks Plunge On Oil, China-U.S. Tensions, Then Rebound>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMZN EBAY FB G20 Summit M News TD Ameritrade TGT WMT Commodities Retail Sales Global Federal Reserve Markets General AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 EBAY US2786421030 M US55616P1049 TGT US87612E1064 WMT US9311421039 FB News Commodities Retail Sales Global Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:30:29 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12780241 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell's Dovish Remarks Were A Plus, But There's Still More To Come https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12779868/powells-dovish-remarks-were-a-plus-but-theres-still-more-to-come <p>After bottoming out to new lows several times between October and November, <a href="https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/futures-markets/interest-rates/10y-t-note-futures/?cid=70144000001EuMz" style="text-decoration:none;">10-year treasury note</a> and <a href="https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/futures-markets/interest-rates/30yr-t-bond-futures/?cid=70144000001EuMz" style="text-decoration:none;">30-year treasury bond futures</a> have jumped to months-long highs on the run-up to the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. In the closing days of November, one-month contracts on 10-year notes are currently up about 1.5 percent and testing old levels at $119 while 30-year futures are up more than 2 percent from recent lows, bumping against $140.</p> <p>The upcoming interest rate decision&mdash;which will come Dec. 19&mdash; will serve as a big signal for both the Fed&rsquo;s conviction for continued economic growth as well as the equity market&rsquo;s resilience to yet another hike.</p> <p>Chairman Jerome Powell&rsquo;s Wednesday speech to the Economic Club of New York was hardly ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12779868/powells-dovish-remarks-were-a-plus-but-theres-still-more-to-come alt=Powell&#039;s Dovish Remarks Were A Plus, But There&#039;s Still More To Come>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> News RJO Futures Futures Forex Econ #s Economics Federal Reserve Markets General News Futures Forex Econ #s Economics Federal Reserve Markets General Benzinga Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:02:04 +0000 Chris Dier-Scalise 12779868 at https://www.benzinga.com Heading South: G20 Meeting In Argentina Puts China Trade Squarely in Focus https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12779528/heading-south-g20-meeting-in-argentina-puts-china-trade-squarely-in-focus <p class="Normal1">The last day of November means it&rsquo;s almost winter in the U.S., but it&rsquo;s spring in Argentina and that&rsquo;s likely where focus will be going into the weekend as the G20 meeting gets underway.</p> <p class="Normal1">Stocks seem to have a weaker tone ahead of the meeting after overnight losses in Europe and another leg down in the crude market. There&rsquo;s a lot of debate about whether the U.S. and China can make any progress on trade as President Trump and Chinese President Xi prepare to dine together Saturday. One thing to consider keeping in mind is the chance that the meeting won&rsquo;t result in anything quantifiable. We could be back here Monday morning trying to figure out which elements , if any, might have a market impact.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">That said, it&rsquo;s probably a good idea to monitor events over the weekend and then take a look at pre-market trading Sunday night for possible clues to the market&rsquo;s reaction. One thing that does seem clear but perhaps unlikely: If there&rsquo;s no positive news out of the meeting, that could be very bearish.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <h3>Is Santa Going To Swing By Buenos Aires?</h3> <p class="Normal1">It&rsquo;s hard to recall any recent event with so much potential to swing influence as this weekend&rsquo;s meeting between Trump and Xi. There&rsquo;s often hope this time of year for a &ldquo;Santa Claus rally,&rdquo; but whether that happens could hinge to some extent on how things look coming out of Buenos Aires.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">That&rsquo;s in part because if U.S. tariffs rise to 25 percent in January&mdash;as could be the case without some sort of agreement&mdash;it&rsquo;s likely to be bad for the U.S. economy, with possible corresponding pressure on stocks. That could make it tough for a Santa Claus rally to materialize.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">On the other hand, it&rsquo;s possible the meeting could result in pragmatism from the two sides and potentially lead to some sort of rally. In fact, The Wall Street Journal ran an article Thursday that hinted at the chance for a coordinated backing down from the two countries. Still, there&rsquo;s likely to be a lot of tough talk in the near future, and that might keep volatility elevated. It&rsquo;s actually hard to see volatility, as measured by the VIX, coming down much from current levels of just below 20 without some sort of trade resolution. In fact, it wouldn&rsquo;t be surprising to see VIX go right back to 20 today from the current level of just over 19.5</p> <p class="Normal1">If there&rsquo;s a Santa Claus rally, one sector to consider watching is info tech, which has arguably suffered the most due to the tariff issue. Apple (AAPL) and its suppliers come to mind, along with the chip makers.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">On a more near-term note, trading today might be a bit slow ahead of the weekend meeting, with investors perhaps unwilling to take big new positions with so much apparently on the line as trade talks get underway. It could be interesting to take a look at how stocks perform in pre-market trading Sunday night for a first possible reaction to any meeting news.</p> <h3>Win Streak Ends as High-End Retailers Pummeled</h3> <p class="Normal1">A choppy market prevailed Thursday as some of the higher-end retail names got pushed around while financials and info tech also came down. The major indices fell moderately early on, came back to post big midday gains, and then lost ground and finished lower. The skid ended a three-day winning streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI), but indices remain on firmer footing for the week.</p> <p class="Normal1">Retailers under pressure Thursday included <strong>Nordstrom, Inc. </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jwn#NYSE">JWN</a>), <strong>Kohl&rsquo;s Corporation</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/kss#NYSE">KSS</a>), and <strong>Macy&rsquo;s Inc. </strong>(NYSE: ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12779528/heading-south-g20-meeting-in-argentina-puts-china-trade-squarely-in-focus alt=Heading South: G20 Meeting In Argentina Puts China Trade Squarely in Focus>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMZN DG DLTR INTC JWN KSS M MSFT News NVDA TIF Retail Sales Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 DLTR US2567461080 INTC US4581401001 MSFT US5949181045 NVDA US67066G1040 JWN US6556641008 KSS US5002551043 M US55616P1049 TIF US8865471085 DG US2566771059 News Retail Sales Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Fri, 30 Nov 2018 15:02:38 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12779528 at https://www.benzinga.com The 6 Biggest Economic Events To Watch In December https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12774592/the-6-biggest-economic-events-to-watch-in-december <p>After giving up all of its year-to-date gains and entering a correction for the second time in 2018 (the first drop being February&rsquo;s dramatic correction), <a href="https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/futures-markets/indices/s&amp;p-500-futures/?cid=70144000001EuMz" style="text-decoration:none;">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> traders are trying to make up any lost ground that they can in the final few weeks of 2018. The broad market index is set to enter the final month of the year up only about 2 percent from where it started in January, its lowest gains in that span since 2015.</p> <p>A similar race to recapture some of its summer highs is playing out on the tech-heavy <a href="https://rjofutures.rjobrien.com/futures-markets/indices/nasdaq-100-futures/?cid=70144000001EuMz" style="text-decoration:none;">Nasdaq futures</a>, which suffered more dramatic falls (-12 percent at its lowest point), but has still managed to build up from the ashes to about 16 percent above its 2018 entry heading into December, on par with its previous annual gains.</p> <p>Given the enthusiasm that gripped the market through most of 2018, traders remain hopeful that, despite the headwinds facing the market in the form of an ongoing trade war, rising interest rates and lower growth projections for 2019, the major indexes will still experience ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12774592/the-6-biggest-economic-events-to-watch-in-december alt=The 6 Biggest Economic Events To Watch In December>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> DIA G20 Summit News RJO Futures Santa Claus Rally SPY Futures Previews Options Topics Events Global Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas General DIA US78467X1090 SPY US78462F1030 News Futures Previews Options Topics Events Global Econ #s Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas General Benzinga Thu, 29 Nov 2018 19:09:01 +0000 Chris Dier-Scalise 12774592 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell Pop: After Sharp Rally On Fed Speech, Nerves Still Seem Frayed https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772348/powell-pop-after-sharp-rally-on-fed-speech-nerves-still-seem-frayed <p class="Normal1">Despite a huge stock market surge Wednesday after dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, caution flags appear to be back on the beach ahead of this weekend&rsquo;s G20 meeting.</p> <p class="Normal1">That&rsquo;s probably the only way to explain why volatility barely inched back even after Powell indicated that rates are close to neutral, remarks that sent the stock market back to positive territory for the year as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) climbed more than 600 points Wednesday. The VIX hardly cooled off at all immediately after Powell&rsquo;s words, falling less than 4 percent by late afternoon. It actually rose 4 percent to back above 19 by Thursday morning. Stocks appeared to have a slightly negative tone early Thursday, but a little pullback might not be a big surprise.</p> <p class="Normal1">Often you&rsquo;d see volatility take a bigger hit when the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) jumps 60 points for its best day in eight months, as it did Wednesday. The thing that&rsquo;s arguably keeping that from happening this time is tariff fears as trade talks approach between President Trump and Chinese President Xi. In fact, it wouldn&rsquo;t be all that surprising to see VIX slowly rise as we head into the weekend and this big unknown. When there&rsquo;s uncertainty in the market&mdash;and the meeting definitely puts that factor right down the middle of the runway&mdash;VIX often stays elevated.</p> <p class="Normal1">If the Fed news had come by itself, without the tariff worries, it&rsquo;s arguable that VIX might have been annihilated. As it is, the bond market&mdash;which at first barely reacted to Powell&rsquo;s speech&mdash;did draw some buying by early Thursday, with the 10-year yield dipping briefly below 3 percent for the first time since September as investors continued to react to the Fed chairman&rsquo;s words.</p> <p class="Normal1">A few more Fed speakers are on the calendar today, along with Fed minutes. It might be a waiting game the next day or two ahead of G20.</p> <p class="Normal1">On the data watch, PCE prices came in at 0.2 percent for October, up from 0.1 percent in September but still not a big signal of any gathering inflation. Core PCE, which strips out energy and food, rose just 0.1 percent, below Wall Street analysts&rsquo; estimates for a 0.2 percent gain. In other data early Thursday, the government reported initial weekly jobless claims of 234,000, above the 220,000 analyst projection.</p> <p class="Normal1">Meanwhile, crude slipped below $50 briefly early Thursday before powering back to $51 a barrel. The original drop came as Saudi Arabia said it wouldn&rsquo;t cut production on its own. An OPEC meeting Dec. 6 looms large, and crude could remain volatile in the meantime. The $50 level is a psychologically important one and arguably remains the key point to watch.</p> <h3>Powell Remarks Seem to Inject New Optimism</h3> <p class="Normal1">The Powell remarks on rates approaching neutral were a bit of a surprise, and seemed to be music to the stock market&rsquo;s ears. Based on the academic-sounding title of the speech, it felt like he might not discuss the rate situation. Instead, he didn&rsquo;t seem shy about addressing the issue, adding his dovish views to a series of more dovish comments made by other Fed officials lately.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Powell said interest rates are still low by historical standards, but remain &ldquo;just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy &mdash; that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.&rdquo;</p> <p class="Normal1">That was quite a contrast to remarks he made just two months ago when he said there was a long way to go until rates reached neutral. Just as a reminder, the Fed funds target range of between 2 percent and 2.25 percent hasn&rsquo;t changed in those two months. While the market has corrected since then, falling 10 percent or more at its lows, the Fed isn&rsquo;t typically influenced by stock market gyrations. Instead, the Fed might believe the neutral rate has fallen due in part to overseas economic sluggishness, tariff concerns, and lack of much U.S. inflation. The recent crude oil dive to 13-month lows might be another issue the Fed is eying, because that arguably makes inflation even less of a factor.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">All this doesn&rsquo;t mean a hike isn&rsquo;t on the way next month. The futures market still puts chances of that at almost 83 percent. However, the 2019 rate picture seems to look a bit different now than ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772348/powell-pop-after-sharp-rally-on-fed-speech-nerves-still-seem-frayed alt=Powell Pop: After Sharp Rally On Fed Speech, Nerves Still Seem Frayed>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL BA CAT G-20 summit MSFT News NKE TD Ameritrade TIF Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 MSFT US5949181045 BA US0970231058 CAT US1491231015 NKE US6541061031 TIF US8865471085 News Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Thu, 29 Nov 2018 14:47:27 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12772348 at https://www.benzinga.com EUR/USD Forecast: Hangover On Powell's Punch Bowl And No Painkiller In Sight https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772277/eurusd-forecast-hangover-on-powells-punch-bowl-and-no-painkiller-in-sight <ul> <li><strong>EUR/USD is off the highs seen after Powell&#39;s dovish comments.</strong></li> <li><strong>Second thoughts and weak euro-zone inflation weigh.</strong></li> <li><strong>The technical picture is worsening for the pair.</strong></li> </ul> <p>EUR/USD is falling from the highs near 1.1400 as markets are having some second thoughts about Powell&#39;s dovish words. The <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed">Fed</a> Chair said on Wednesday that &quot;just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.&quot; This contradicts his words in October that there is a &quot;long way&quot; before reaching neutral. Markets jumped and the US Dollar plunged.</p> <p>But now we are seeing some profit taking and also some second thoughts. Some analysts challenge the notion that Powell went dovish and deviated from past comments. His upbeat words about the economy still&nbsp;support several rate hikes in 2019. Others stick to yesterday&#39;s narrative of a &quot;Powell Put&quot;: a central bank that supports stocks when they begin falling.</p> <p>We will get a full answer on December 19th, when ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772277/eurusd-forecast-hangover-on-powells-punch-bowl-and-no-painkiller-in-sight alt=EUR/USD Forecast: Hangover On Powell&#039;s Punch Bowl And No Painkiller In Sight>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> DB EUR/USD FXStreet News Forex Federal Reserve Markets DB DE0005140008 News Forex Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Thu, 29 Nov 2018 14:39:01 +0000 Yohay Elam 12772277 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell Pushes Gold ETFs Higher... Sort Of https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/18/11/12769177/powell-pushes-gold-etfs-higher-sort-of <p>The <strong>SPDR Gold Shares </strong>(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and rival gold-backed exchange traded funds traded modestly higher Wednesday after Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said interest rates are close to &ldquo;neutral.&rdquo;</p> <p>Three interest rate hikes this year and the subsequently stronger dollar are among the most widely cited reasons for explaining gold&#39;s struggles this year.</p> <h3>What Happened</h3> <p>GLD, the largest gold ETF by assets, entered Wednesday with a year-to-date loss of 7 percent before gaining 0.37 percent on above-average volume.</p> <p>&ldquo;Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/18/11/12769177/powell-pushes-gold-etfs-higher-sort-of alt=Powell Pushes Gold ETFs Higher... Sort Of>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> CME group Donald Trump GDX GLD Gold Jay Powell Jerome Powell Long Ideas Sector ETFs Commodities Previews Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas ETFs GDX US57060U1007 GLD US78463V1070 Long Ideas Sector ETFs Commodities Previews Top Stories Federal Reserve Markets Trading Ideas ETFs Benzinga Thu, 29 Nov 2018 14:32:31 +0000 ETF Professor 12769177 at https://www.benzinga.com Premature Powell Put: 5 Reasons To Fade The Fed Chair And Hail King Dollar https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772063/premature-powell-put-5-reasons-to-fade-the-fed-chair-and-hail-king-dollar <ul> <li><strong>The US Dollar fell after Powell&#39;s speech that was perceived as dovish.</strong></li> <li><strong>However, there are five reasons to see the greenback outperform its peers.</strong></li> </ul> <p>Markets jumped on the words &quot;just below neutral&quot; that Powell used to refer to interest rates. Stocks soared, and the <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-technical-analysis-dxy-drops-sharply-as-feds-powell-delivers-dovish-comments-201811282207">US Dollar tumbled down</a>. While a December hike&nbsp;</p> <h3 class="fxs_headline_medium">1) What Trump said</h3> <p>With all the fuss about Powell&#39;s words and the non-stop news flow, it is easy to forget what US President Donald Trump said about the <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed">Fed</a> Chair earlier this week. He complained about the Fed&#39;s rate hikes that it is not accommodating to Trump&#39;s policy and topped it off by saying he &quot;is not pleased one bit&quot; with Powell.</p> <p>Powell&#39;s words may, therefore, be seen in this context, as <strong>taking some of the steam out of Trump&#39;s anger</strong>. By sending stocks higher, the White House may be off his back. The clash&nbsp;will likely continue, but it may return to the backburner after Powell sent the Dow Jones, Trump&#39;s favorite index, up by 600 points.</p> <h3 class="fxs_headline_medium">2) Just below, but exactly what?</h3> <p>Powell&#39;s exact words referred to interest rates being below the range of what ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12772063/premature-powell-put-5-reasons-to-fade-the-fed-chair-and-hail-king-dollar alt=Premature Powell Put: 5 Reasons To Fade The Fed Chair And Hail King Dollar>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> FXStreet News Forex Federal Reserve Markets News Forex Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Thu, 29 Nov 2018 14:13:28 +0000 Yohay Elam 12772063 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell Vs. Trump: Fed Chair Hits Dovish Tone As President Ramps Up Criticism https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12766154/powell-vs-trump-fed-chair-hits-dovish-tone-as-president-ramps-up-criticism <p>Investors got what they were hoping for from the Federal Reserve<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-full-speech-transcript.html?forYou=true">&nbsp;Wednesday </a>when Chairman Jerome Powell said interest rates are currently &ldquo;just below&rdquo; neutral.</p> <p>Powell&rsquo;s statement comes after he was harshly criticized by President Donald Trump this week, who appointed Powell as Fed chair earlier this year.</p> <h3>More Dovish Fed</h3> <p>Powell&rsquo;s latest language is much more dovish than a statement he made in October in which he said rates were still &ldquo;a long way&rdquo; from neutral.</p> <p>&ldquo;Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy &mdash; that is, ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12766154/powell-vs-trump-fed-chair-hits-dovish-tone-as-president-ramps-up-criticism alt=Powell Vs. Trump: Fed Chair Hits Dovish Tone As President Ramps Up Criticism>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> DIA Donald Trump GLD Interest Rates Jerome Powell News QQQ SPX SPY Politics Top Stories Federal Reserve General DIA US78467X1090 GLD US78463V1070 SPY US78462F1030 QQQ US73935A1043 SPX News Politics Top Stories Federal Reserve General Benzinga Wed, 28 Nov 2018 18:20:00 +0000 Wayne Duggan 12766154 at https://www.benzinga.com Powell Stepping Up To Stage With Weekend China Talks Waiting in Wings https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12764505/powell-stepping-up-to-stage-with-weekend-china-talks-waiting-in-wings <p class="Normal1">Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes center stage Wednesday when he steps to the podium at the Economic Club of New York. With other Fed speakers recently sounding a bit more dovish, the question is whether Powell might say anything that reinforces hopes for a less active central bank in 2019.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">Going into Powell&rsquo;s noon ET speech, the market seems to have a more positive tone after consecutive strong finishes Monday and Tuesday. While there&rsquo;s still a lot of emotion hanging over the Street ahead of Powell, optimism might be growing a little going into weekend trade talks between the U.S. and China. When it comes to market sentiment, tariffs still rule the roost. Just about every big move recently has been related to China, one way or the other, so watch for potential volatility ahead of that big weekend meeting.</p> <p class="Normal1">From a data standpoint early Wednesday, the government left its estimate for Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) unchanged at 3.5 percent. New home sales for October also bow this morning. Tomorrow afternoon brings Fed minutes from its November meeting.</p> <p class="Normal1">There was also some earnings news late yesterday and early today. <strong>Tiffany &amp; Co.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tif#NYSE">TIF</a>) shares got crushed Wednesday in pre-market trading after the company&rsquo;s same-store sales rose but missed Wall Street analysts&rsquo; estimates. This probably reflects a drop in tourism and a strong dollar more than anything, so it&rsquo;s not necessarily time to panic about the high-end consumer.&nbsp;</p> <p class="Normal1">On a more positive note, shares of business software firm <strong>Salesforce.com, Inc.</strong> (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/crm#NYSE">CRM</a>) heated up with an 8 percent jump in pre-market trading after the company not only easily beat analysts&rsquo; estimates on earnings, but, perhaps more importantly, delivered a strong outlook.</p> <h3>Powell Speech Takes Center Stage</h3> <p class="Normal1">Though his speech has an academic-sounding title, &ldquo;The Federal Reserve&rsquo;s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability,&rdquo; many investors are waiting to hear if Powell addresses the subject on so many minds: The Fed&rsquo;s interest rate thoughts heading into 2019.</p> <p class="Normal1">While there&rsquo;s no guarantee of Powell saying anything meaningful about rate policy, it&rsquo;s probably a good idea to monitor his speech and see if he echoes any of the more dovish comments made by Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who on Tuesday said the Fed funds rate is &ldquo;much closer&rdquo; to neutral than it was three years ago when rates began going up from essentially zero. No one at the Fed has pinpointed what exact number &ldquo;neutral&rdquo; might be, but Clarida said it&rsquo;s important that the Fed be &ldquo;data dependent&rdquo; about future moves.</p> <p class="Normal1">Powell last talked about &ldquo;neutral&rdquo; roughly two months ago when he said current rates (which are the same now as they were then) were &ldquo;a long way&rdquo; from neutral. Some analysts think that was one factor that helped lead to the sell-off in October.</p> <p class="Normal1">At this point, the futures market puts nearly 80 percent odds on a fourth 2018 rate hike next month, but odds of another hike next year have come down a lot in recent weeks. While the Fed&rsquo;s &ldquo;dot-plot&rdquo; on Dec. 19 will probably be the best way to get insight into what might happen in 2019, there&rsquo;s a chance Powell could provide some kind ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12764505/powell-stepping-up-to-stage-with-weekend-china-talks-waiting-in-wings alt=Powell Stepping Up To Stage With Weekend China Talks Waiting in Wings>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> AAPL AMZN CRM FB M MSFT News NFLX TD Ameritrade TGT TIF Federal Reserve Markets AAPL US0378331005 AMZN US0231351067 MSFT US5949181045 NFLX US64110L1061 CRM US79466L3024 M US55616P1049 TGT US87612E1064 TIF US8865471085 FB News Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Wed, 28 Nov 2018 15:06:39 +0000 JJ Kinahan 12764505 at https://www.benzinga.com EUR/USD Forecast: 3 Reasons For Losing Downtrend Support And Eyeing The Yearly Lows https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12764153/eurusd-forecast-3-reasons-for-losing-downtrend-support-and-eyeing-the-yearly-low <ul> <li><strong>EUR/USD extends its losses after losing downtrend support.</strong></li> <li><strong>Italy and global trade, and the Fed are sources of concern.</strong></li> <li><strong>On a busy day, the pair may enter oversold conditions.</strong></li> </ul> <p>EUR/USD is struggling below 1.1300, extending its losses. The US Dollar gained ground on Tuesday on two significant factors. The common currency is losing ground on one issue: Italy.</p> <h3 class="fxs_headline_medium">1) Trump tough on trade</h3> <p>The US may impose tariffs on cars as early as next week. The Administration will reportedly slap duties on all countries except Canada and Mexico. German car exporters are worried.</p> <p>Moreover, trade talks with China are not going very smoothly. The Chinese ambassador to the US hinted that the Americans are tough in the negotiations and was not optimistic of achieving an understanding ahead of the summit between Trump Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday. Concerns support the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.</p> <p>Trump gave an interview to the Washington Post in which he lambasted <a href="https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/central-banks/fed">Fed</a> Chair Jerome Powell and blamed the Fed for the jitters in stocks. The President has been very sensitive to stock prices, but if he has someone else to blame, ...</p><p><a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/18/11/12764153/eurusd-forecast-3-reasons-for-losing-downtrend-support-and-eyeing-the-yearly-low alt=EUR/USD Forecast: 3 Reasons For Losing Downtrend Support And Eyeing The Yearly Lows>Full story available on Benzinga.com</a></p> EUR/USD FXStreet News Eurozone Forex Federal Reserve Markets News Eurozone Forex Federal Reserve Markets Benzinga Wed, 28 Nov 2018 14:32:34 +0000 Yohay Elam 12764153 at https://www.benzinga.com