ETF Outlook For October 8, 2013 (VXX, GREK, UGA)
Here are some notable ETFs worth taking a look at for Tuesday, October 8, 2013.
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX)
The market volatility due to the government shutdown has begun to spike once again. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 16 percent Monday to the highest level since late June. The VIX has only had two closes above Monday’s $19.41 level and that happened to mark the end of the June pullback that was driven by the first talk of the Fed tapering.
VXX closed up 7.6 percent Monday at a new one-month high. The ETN offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts. Buyers beware that VXX is highly volatile and any type of market rally could lead to big loses.
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK)
On Monday, Financial Times reported billionaire investor John Paulson was joining a list of other hedge funds in investing in the Greek banking sector. The news helped push GREK to best close since May and not far from a two-year high.
The ETF is up 46 percent since hitting a low in late June. Even though the news was focused on the financials, it was good news for the entire country that the much-beleaguered financial stocks are once again finding buyers.
GREK only has 15 percent of its allocation in the financial stocks, the ETF surged five percent on the news. The consumer discretionary stocks make up the largest portion of the ETF at 39 percent. Greece joins the other PIIGS in outperforming their peers in 2013 after a couple of rough years during the financial crisis.
United States Gasoline ETF (NYSE: UGA)
Looking for some sunshine in the black clouds of the government shutdown? How about gas prices falling in the U.S. Shares of UGA have fallen to the lowest level three months before rebounding Monday.
The chart of UGA shows strong long-term support near the $54 area. The low on Monday was $54.90 before it rallied to close at $56.20. If UGA can hold support and the shutdown is resolved in a timely manner the odds of the ETF rallying back to the $60’s is high.
iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cocoa ETN (NYSE: NIB)
Apparently the holiday sweet tooth came early this year as the price of cocoa has risen to the highest level in over a year. In the last three months the ETN is up 25 percent. The reason for the increase in price related more to supply than demand.
Macquarie estimated cocoa production will fall by 173k metric tons below the level of consumption in the new season. This is due to heavy rains in Ghana and Ivory Coast.
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