Is China's Slowdown Bullish for the Global Economy?
Economic data released on Friday indicated that the Chinese economy may be slowing. The Chinese manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in 28 months, according to Reuters.
U.S. stocks rallied on Friday, although Chinese data may not have played into investors' decisions. Rather, an unexpected increase in U.S. manufacturing may have propelled stocks higher.
Simultaneously, however, commodity prices declined. Crude oil slipped to near $95 a barrel, while precious metals declined notably, with silver falling almost 3%.
Data from China may indicate that Chinese officials are having success in their battle to tame the country's inflation. The Chinese consumer price index has been increasing at an annualized rate of over 5% for the past several months, while official food inflation figures have been upwards of 10%.
Yet, if recent trends continue, things may be looking up for the broader global economy.
Bullish: Traders who believe that commodity prices will remain subdued and U.S. manufacturing will continue to grow might want to consider the following trades:
- Buy United States Short Oil Fund (NYSE: DNO) in a short play on industrial commodities. If Chinese demand for oil is subdued, the price of oil may decline and DNO might benefit.
- Buy Industrial SPDR (NYSE: XLI) in a long play on U.S. industrials.
Bearish: Traders who believe that bullish investors are becoming over-eager may consider taking positions in the following:
- ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 (NYSE: DXD) is a short play on the broader U.S. market. DXD may rally if the market does poorly.
- SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is a long play on gold. Gold has rallied in times of economic turbulence, and GLD may benefit from continued economic distress.
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