Economist Dr. Thomas Simpson Sees New Payroll Employment Between 225,000-250,000 For December

Speaking to Benzinga, Former Federal Reserve Officer and Economist Dr. Thomas Simpson said he expects a fairly strong number for the December jobs report, somewhere between 225,000-250,000 on the payroll side.

“Of interest will be revision to October and November. In recent months, revision have been positive and significant, which typically occurs in a strong labor market,” he said, adding that the unemployment rate is likely to be steady or to tick down 0.1 percent.

Simpson said he will also be watching the hourly wages figure, which posted a fairly strong 0.4 percent advance in November. He explained a 0.3 or 0.4 percent increase in December would suggest the labor market is tightening, and cost pressures will, before long, start to boost inflation after the effects of the strong dollar and drop in energy prices disappear.

Finally, Thomas mentioned the Fed will be very reluctant to take its first tightening step unless it is confident that inflation is on a trajectory to the 2 percent target.

Both the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY are up more than 12 percent over the past year.