The Economy & Stock Markets – Bubbles - Recessions - Cycles and Emerging Markets by George Mentz JD MBA CWM
The Economy & Stock Markets – Bubble Recession and Emerging Markets by George Mentz
With 2013 having a solid stock market comeback, we all wonder what the stock market will do in 2014. Presently, we just had the worst January in 5 years in the stock market. Does this mean that the big investors will begin to move to the sidelines? Who knows.
If history repeats itself, here are some likely scenarios.
1) A Wall Street Fat-Cat like Robert “Bob” Rubin or George Soros or maybe other name-brand economist will give a speech and say that they are going to cash or out of the market. This will spook the crowd of investors and the market will correct.
2) Europeans and Asians will pull out of the US markets because they had a good year, and they will move to areas with more upside.
3) Because the economy and jobs growth has been so bad in the USA for 6 years now, maybe there is much more room for global growth, hiring, and stock market upside.
With the US economy’s S&P 500 reaping over 40% of its profits offshore, maybe the US listed stocks will continue to rally. Why would there be a global rally? Here are 4 reasons which constitute billions of people.
1) India 2) Africa 3) Arabia 4) Asia (plus Indonesia and Malaysia)
Each of these 4 world regions has a large percentage of their citizens that are under the age 30. Whether you like it or not, there are buyers and demographics in these 4 regions of the world that want: things, phones, clothes, medicine, education, foot, software, fun and meaning in their lives. If you look at case studies on mobile device sales in emerging markets, it only takes one country to take off with the use of a new product or service to boost a stock of a mobile company. Further, a drug maker may be able to sell medicine in 50 countries before it is even approved by the FDA.
In the end, a good company can be a market leader in growth with all of their sales being outside of their host country. What does that mean? It means that a company can do all business and sales offshore while avoiding local sales taxes, local regulations, and other red tape. What is the point? Many of the leading world tech stocks are listed on the US exchanges even though they are based in Beijing or Delhi; thus, anyone can invest in them in the USA.
With 2013 over, and the recession still lingering into 2014, it makes you wonder if the cycle will change. Rather than another market bubble in the USA after 6 years, we may see a long steady protracted-growth of US global stocks due to the combined pressure of emerging markets on positive sales.
For the readers here are some global stock picks:
Dr. George Mentz is a world recognized wealth management commentator and professor who has authored several revolutionary books. Prof. Mentz, an international attorney, is the CEO of the Global Academy of Finance and Management www.GAFM.org and has been a keynote speaker globally in Asia, Arabia, USA, Mexico, Switzerland, and in the West Indies. Mentz can be contacted for speaking engagements at www.gmentz.com or www.managementconsultant.us Dr. Mentz is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager and holds a Doctorate of Jurisprudence and an MBA and serves as faculty and professor for several esteemed colleges, law schools and business schools worldwide.
*No tax investment or legal advice provided herein. Please consult with a licensed professional in your jurisdiction before making any important financial or legal decision.
The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.