Stocks Look Less Confident Today

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Equities: The JUN13 emini SP 500 is down 11 points to 1615.75 this morning. We believe this is significant because it is below one of our key support levels of 1617. The daily pivot point for this market is 1630, and the market is well below there right now. 1612 is our next key support level. It seems to us that the market is much more unstable regarding the overall sentiment as it was leading up the Bernanke’s testimony last month. We would not be surprised to see the market spend some extended time in the high 1500′s, seeking new cues for the future.

Bonds: The bond futures and eurodollar futures are close to unchanged today, with the JUN US 30yr bond futures trading down 2 ticks to 139.08. We still believe in the bearish bond idea, and would not be surprised to see yields continue to trend higher.  It seems as though 139 could be a short term magnet level, and our next key resistance level is 141. The MAR16 eurodollars could trade in a short term range between 9848 and 9868. 9868 is our key resistance level, and 9848 seems like a key short term support level from our market profile analysis.

Currencies: The Euro currency continues its recent bullish tone, trading up 31 ticks to 133.47. The Euro could be a bit over-extended on the short term, as it is above the 3 day market profile value area. Our key potential support/magnet level is 132.64. However, if this market gets close to or below this level, we expect buyers to not let it stay down there for long. Our first key support is 133.17.  The Aussie dollar and Yen are both up today as well.

Commodities: Gold is up $15 on what could be a round of short covering. Our first technical resistance level is $1395, and the daily pivot is $1376. We still believe gold is in a neutral to bearish environment, and the markets seem to be experiencing a correction in the many major trends established in the first half of this year. Crude oil is up $.69 to $96.07, and the grain markets are down (corn, wheat, soybean futures) after the key USDA report was released this morning.