Words of War

I had an interesting conversation with a fellow who lives in Europe and has been connected to the spook world in the past. (See

for prior discussions with him.) It went like this:

Have you been watching the events in Syria?

Not really. I'm not sure what, if any, are the implications of this is.

You should. Things are moving faster and faster. For example, have you seen the level of fighting in the streets of Damascus the past few days?

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No. It seems there is fighting every day.

There is now heavy fighting in the capital of Damascus. Clearly, the opposition has grown substantially for this to happen. It also means that the fighters are being armed. They would not take on a battle in the capital unless they were well armed.

BK

Interesting. Where are they getting these arms?

The same place that the Libyans got theirs, the Qataris and the Saudis.

Ah! How do the Saudis and Qataris get arms into Syria?

Through Turkey, of course. You don't think those Turkish jets got shot down by accident do you? This was the excuse for Erdogon (Turkish President) to get involved. Now he is.

Why would Erdogon want to get involved in the Syrian mess?

He sees himself as a guardian of the Sunni. What we are witnessing is the re-emergence of the Ottoman Empire.

What is happening is that Syria is in a civil war, but behind this is a religious war. Sunni versus Shia.

The fighting today is in the streets of Syria, but in the end, this is a war between the Saudis and the Iranians.

Where's this headed?

At this point, the USA is sharing any intelligence it has with all “friendly” interested parties, including the Turks, the Israelis, the Qataris and the Saudis. Given that all of these countries are also “leakers” of info, it is a safe bet that the Russians have the same info and are passing it along to the Iranians.

It's an equally safe bet the Iranians are very angry at this. In particular, they are pissed at the Qataris. And that gets us right back to the Straits of Hormuz.

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Are you saying Iran might attack Qatar?

No, I wouldn't think so. That would be suicide. The Americans have two aircraft carriers and a full fleet of other ships available to crush any aggression by Iran. But that is the point, all Iran needs do is threaten Qatar, and the price of crude shoots up. With it, would go insurance charges for the ships that ply those waters. A few well-placed mines would do the trick.

Do you think it will play out like that?

The Iranians truly hate the Saudis, the Saudis hate the Iranians just as much. Today there is a new excuse to hate each other, Syria.

As to the odds, who knows? But I think that the odds are greater for something to happen to escalate what we are seeing today, versus a return to regional stability.

Timing?

Impossible to say. Keep in mind that Obama and Hilary Clinton have effectively put Israel on a leash as far as Iran's nukes are concerned until after the American election. The Iranians know this, and they understand that November is not so far away. The US does not have the Israelis tied up regarding matters in Syria.

I don't see how

can put a lid on all of this. There are too many moving parts.

Do the Iranians have an interest in stirring up a hornet's nest before November? Sure they do. It could be a matter of weeks.

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Qatar produces (only) 1.3m barrels of crude a day. However, they are the largest producer of liquified natural gas (LNG) in the world.

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