Farm Mania: Ready For A Breather?

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Until recently, it would have been nearly impossible to really be bearish on agriculture commodities, but commodities of all stripes have been under pressure this week. Taking a wide view of things, several of the stronger farm commodities were certainly due for a bit of rest and a pullback could set them up for another leg higher. Perhaps the best way of looking at the situation down on the farm is that a selectively bullish posture is probably the best course of action for the rest of 2011. That means buying commodities ETNs blindly will prove to be a losing strategy because some of these ETNs are quite vulnerable right now. Let's have a look at three commodities ETNs that have foreboding charts at the moment. 1) iPath DJ-UBS Livestock TR Sub-Index ETN
COW
: Alright, so COW made a new 52-week high around $33 a couple of weeks ago and that was after we highlighted COW as an epic disappointment due to its lackluster ways while cattle and hogs prices were soaring. Trading at $31.70, another $1 could easily come off COW soon and if support at $30.50 doesn't hold, expect at least another $2 to be trimmed from this ETN. Simply put, COW is vulnerable because if hardly moved when cattle and hogs were going up, so what happens if futures traders turn bearish on those commodities? COW probably tanks. 2) iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Index ETN
SGG
: Always one of the more volatile commodities ETNs, SGG peaked over $100 in February, but couldn't even make a legitimate run back there during its March climb. The chart is now marked by lower highs and lower lows. If $75 doesn't hold as a support, the ensuing carnage could be very ugly. 3) ELEMENTS MLCX Biofuels Index TR ETN
FUE
: FUE could find itself in hot water if sugar continues to plummet and corn traders decide to take more profits. FUE is thinly traded so a couple of big sell orders could quickly drop the ETN below support, which is just under $11 and force it down another 10% or more from there. To play downtrends in these ETNs and the agriculture commodities space at large, traders might want to look at the PowerShares DB Agriculture Double Short ETN
AGA
, which is highly volatile and thinly traded, but packs the potential for rapid, short-term gains if traders decide to bet against the farm.
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