Market Overview

More Country-Specific ETF Winners For $100 Oil

Yesterday, we looked at some country-specific ETF winners and losers under the $100 oil scenario, highlighting Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia as two regions that have both potential winners and lossers thanks to high oil prices.

Today, we're going to finish the list on a positive note by looking at a few more winners (we got the losers citied by Credit Suisse out of the way on Thursday).

Europe:

The Global X FTSE Norway 30 ETF (NYSE: NORW) should immediately come to mind as play on $100 oil prices because energy is by the biggest sector weight in this new ETF and Statoil (NYSE: STO), Norway's top oil producer, is one of the ETF's top holdings. Problem is Norway's oil production is declining so NORW's oil-related alpha may be muted.

North America:

The IQ Canada Small Cap ETF (NYSE: CNDA) is another new ETF, though not as new as NORW, but the benefit here is Canada has reliable buyer for its oil exports in the U.S. Should the U.S. economy continue to recover, Canada will benefit. CNDA is a better bet than say the iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (NYSE: EWC) because CNDA is more levered to the Canadian energy and materials sectors. From a forex standpoint, the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXC) is also worth looking at as the loonie is the epitomoe of a "commodity currency."

South America:

Check out the most recent earnings report from Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Colombia's state-run oil company, and you'll understand why the Global X/InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: GXG) is a great way to play rising oil prices. We've mentioned this ETF as way to do just that multiple times in recent months. After a great 2010, GXG has pulled back some this year, but then again, that could mean there is still some decent upside here. Colombia is bolstering its oil production at the perfect time.

So why not include the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE: EWZ) on the list? Here's why: Yes, Brazil is energy independent, but Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) still has some issues to work through that have been documented dozens of times here and elsewhere in recent months.

The market is vastly overstating EWZ as a play on rising oil prices because Petrobras is not pumping much pre-salt oil YET and a hefty chunk of the company's revenue comes from gasoline and diesel sales, which should be good for the company when oil prices are high. Wait a minute. Brazil's government "encourages" Petrobras to keep fuel price increases to a minimum to limit inflation and this is the type of problem one needs to be aware with Petrobras: Brazil's government is the company's largest shareholder.

Posted-In: Long Ideas News Short Ideas Emerging Market ETFs Commodities Currency ETFs Intraday Update Trading Ideas

 

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