How Long Will TNT Issues Last For FedEx? This Analyst Isn't Waiting To Find Out

FedEx Corporation FDX's TNT unit was the victim of a cyberattack in late June and it wasn't until Aug. 18 when the company confirmed its operations in Europe is back to normal. UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz said it still remains unknown if the company's international operations, delivery confirmation system, and billing systems have fully recovered.

As such, the analyst isn't waiting around for an answer and downgraded FedEx's stock from Buy to Neutral with a price target lowered from $235 to $233.

While any one-time costs as a result of the data breach in the fiscal first quarter 2018 isn't necessarily a concern, the longer-term impact to volumes from the cyberattack most certainly are, Wadewitz commented in his note. Investors also have valid reason to now question the company's ability to achieve its earnings per share growth target of 10 to 15 percent in fiscal 2018 and 2019.

In fact, the ongoing TNT issues could result in FedEx's future earnings reports coming in at the low-end of management's guidance or even below the low end, the analyst suggested.

"While we believe that the multiyear improvement opportunity remains significant, we have less conviction and visibility to margin performance and EPS in F18 / F19 which is likely to matter for the stock," Wadewitz wrote.

Bottom line, the analyst's reduced visibility into FedEx's near-term performance implies the stock's risk to reward profile is "roughly balanced."

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