October: The Market's Problem Child

So far, the month of October is off to a lackluster start, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY down 0.3 percent in the first few days of the month.

October is a particularly volatile month for the S&P 500. According to Argus analyst Jim Kelleher, October tends to be a strong month for the S&P 500, but the S&P has also logged some horrible October performances as well.

Since 1980, the S&P has averaged a 1.44 percent gain in the month of October, making it the fourth best month of the year for the market. However, while the S&P’s average monthly move (regardless of direction) throughout the year is 3.3 percent, October’s 4.2 percent average move makes it a volatility outlier.

Related Link: What Is This Year's October Surprise?

Kelleher notes that traders fear the month of October because of its unpredictability, despite the S&P 500’s strong average historical October performance.

This year, Argus is not optimistic about where the market is headed in October.

“Our short-term indicators are shading more toward neutral, but we will maintain our short-term bearish outlook until we see a clear positive signal,” Kelleher explains.

Argus remains bullish on the S&P 500 in the intermediate-term.

One thing is certain: the market is having a much better 2016 than 2015. Through the first nine months of 2016, the S&P 500 gained 6.1 percent. At the same point last year, the market was down 6.7 percent.